Dhaka – Rainfall is being experiernces across Bangladesh since thursday night under the influence of the new cyclone that has formed over the Bay of Bengal. Weather experts say this cyclone may cause as heavy as 100millimetres (8 inches) of rainfall and flooding in Bangladesh and Eastern India. Due to the heavy downpour fresh flash floods from the states of Monipur, Mizoram and Meghalaya are likely.
The system was located on Thursday in Central and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal 650 km south-east of India’s Visakhapatnam, the closest point on the East Coast of India.The location was 810 km south-southeast of Paradip in Odisha and 1.50 km south-southwest of Khepupara in Bangladesh, according to the Regional Specialised Met Centre, New Delhi.
It is forecast to intensify as a deep depression in the next 24 hours and subsequently as a cyclonic storm with a projected landfall over the Bangladesh coast by Sunday.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer said that conditions into early this weekend are conducive for the depression to become a cyclone.
“The best chance for it to strengthen into a cyclone will be Friday night into Saturday morning,” she said.
However, the depression is likely not become stronger than Cyclone Kyant.
“Increasingly hostile winds above the surface should cause the storm to weaken before nearing Bangladesh,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
“The main threat from this system will be heavy rain and flooding from coastal Odisha to Bangladesh, including the cities of Kolkata and Dhaka,” he said.
Rainfall in that area could total 100-200 mm (4-8 inches), threatening to cause widespread flooding problems. Rainfall on the higher end of that range will depend on how close the depression tracks to the coast, Nicholls said.
Estimated wind speed on Thursday was in the range of 46 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr. The state of the sea is ‘rough’ to ‘very rough’ around the centre of the system.
Winds are higher in the northern sector of the system at 46 km/hr to 55 km/her and lower in the southern sector at 28 km/hr to 37 km/hr.
The projected cyclone will start steering away from India’s East Coast from Friday, the Regional Specialised Met Centre said.
Most weather models also concur that the intensification of the system as a cyclone would take place and that it would also reach closest to the Andhra Pradesh coast in India in the process.
But from there, it would start re-curving to the north-east headed for an intended landfall over the Bangladesh coast, expected to happen by Sunday.
Earlier on Tuesday night, India Met Department (IMD) said it was confident that the intensification into a depression during the course of the day Thursday.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) shared this forecast, citing the persisting favourable environment for it to grow in strength, the prospects of which was assessed as ‘high.’
It had located the system some distance to the north-west of Smith Island in Andaman & Nicobar Islands but a good 1,000 km and more south-east of Visakhapatnam.
AccuWeather has forecast, the brewing tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal could spread flooding rain across eastern India and Bangladesh into this weekend.
This system comes just one week after Cyclone Kyant roamed the Bay of Bengal.
Currently a depression, the system will curve toward eastern India and parallel the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha into Saturday, local time.
The depression may then make landfall in Bangladesh later this weekend. It is possible that the depression meanders south of Bangladesh into early next week, not making landfall until the middle of next week as a much weaker system.
Heavy rainfall may also threaten the higher terrain in Mizoram, Manipur and southeastern Meghalaya in northeastern India this weekend.
Along the northern coast of Andhra Pradesh on Friday and in Nagaland later this weekend, downpours will generally total 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) with localized flooding issues.
The track of the depression will keep its heavy rain away from Chennai.
As the depression strengthens, gusty winds will increase around its center and cause seas in the northern Bay of Bengal to become dangerously rough for small craft and swimmers.
If the solution of the depression delaying its landfall until the middle of next week unfolds, it would likely be a much weaker system by the time it reaches land.
However, localized downpours could still accompany it into Bangladesh. New flash flooding may ensue, especially with the ground saturated from this weekend’s deluge.