Oil prices fell more than 2 percent on Friday after Goldman Sachs cut its crude forecasts, citing global oversupply and concerns over the Chinese economy, and after Saudi Arabia dismissed the idea of an oil producer summit.
Joining a long list of banks cutting their price forecasts, Goldman Sachs on Friday reduced its 2015 US crude oil estimate to $48.10 a barrel, down from $52.
The bank lowered its 2016 forecast for US crude to $45 from $57.
Goldman also cut its 2015 Brent price forecast to $53.70 a barrel from $58.20, and said it saw 2016 Brent prices at $49.50, down from its earlier $62 forecast.
Brent for October LCOc1 was down $1.00 at $47.89 a barrel by 0930 GMT.
US crude CLc1, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, was down 95 cents at $44.97 a barrel.
Investors largely ignored a relatively bullish report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA said a move by the world’s big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production appeared to be working.
“Oil’s price collapse is closing down high-cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea,” the IEA said in its monthly report.
The IEA, which advises the world’s biggest economies on energy policy, said the closure of some non-OPEC oil production “may result in the loss next year of half a million barrels a day – the biggest decline in 24 years”.
“The oil market is looking for something a little more concrete than the forecasts. This may come this afternoon with the weekly US rig count data,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas.
Core members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries see no reason to cut production.
Saudi Arabia thinks a summit of oil-producing countries would fail to produce concrete action toward defending prices, sources familiar with the matter said.
The comments followed a meeting of Gulf Arab oil ministers in Doha, at which a Venezuelan proposal for an OPEC and non-OPEC summit was discussed.
Oil prices rallied on Thursday after government data showed US demand for gasoline over the latest four-week period rose almost 4 percent from a year earlier.
US crude inventories USOILC=ECI rose 2.6 million barrels to 458 million barrels in the past week, the US Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 933,000 barrels.