India Misread Hasina’s Fate on Morning of 5 August

On the morning of 5 August last year, India — long seen as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s staunchest ally — remained confident that the Awami League leader would withstand the fiercest challenge to her 15-year rule.

According to a report released on Tuesday, citing Indian intelligence and cabinet sources, senior figures in New Delhi believed Hasina would ultimately prevail despite mounting public fury.

While Bangladesh witnessed scenes of historic celebration that day, many Indian politicians appeared caught off guard by the rapid turn of events across the border, which carried the potential to reshape regional geopolitics. Only three senior ministers and top intelligence officials closely monitored the situation, yet they too maintained faith in Hasina’s survival.

In the capital, lawmakers from across the political spectrum continued working on legislation for approval during the first day of the final week of the monsoon parliamentary session.