Bangladesh must act fast to offset fallout of Ukraine conflict

Speakers at a roundtable on Wednesday said Bangladesh remains in a good position with workable human resources, food production and geographical location but laid emphasis on enhancing energy exploration along with a diversified policy for conventional and renewable.

But despite these advantages, the country has fallen backward in last one and half a decade in its own energy exploration due to lack of a sustainable policy, they said.

The experts raised the issues at the roundtable titled “A World in Turmoil: The Fallout from the Ukraine Conflict” jointly organized by Cosmos Foundation and Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) at a city hotel.

Chairman of Cosmos Foundation Enayetullah Khan and President of BIPSS Major General (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman moderated the discussion.

Former foreign secretary Md Touhid Hossain, assistant professor, department of international relations, Bangladesh University of Professional (BUP) Umme Salma Tarin and assistant professor, department of economics, East West University Parvez Karim Abbasi spoke as panelists.

Enayetullah Khan said Bangladesh has to enhance its energy exploration along with a diversified policy for conventional and renewable sectors’ capacity growth.

“If Bangladesh cannot expand gas extraction from domestic sources within a short time, there would be a great concern for foreign exchange reserves for big payment on oil-gas imports, '' he added.

He said now is the time to focus on gas exploration to ensure energy security like food security and a review is needed in the fiscal policy for a stable economy.

Bangladesh’s agriculture sector will be affected by the Russia-Ukraine war as a big portion of fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus was closed due to the turmoil, said Khan.

Besides, the Rooppur nuclear power plant, a project of 2400MW of electricity generation from atomic energy, has also fallen into uncertainty because of the Ukraine turmoil.

Maj Gen Muniruzzaman said the Ukraine turmoil has created a security and energy concern in the world, and when it would end, none can predict it now.

“We primarily identified three dimensions of Ukraine turmoil- food, energy, and finance, as the countries of the world are entirely connected with each other, so every country is affected by the consequences of the war,” Muniruzzaman said.

He said the exchange rate has been soaring by Tk 8 to 10 in 24 hours recently, which also creates a concern for Bangladesh to manage its trading and finance.

Touhid Hossain said Bangladesh has to remain in the middle point considering the sensitivity of current global situation and favoring any particular country will be a satirical mistake, reports UNB.

“The world never remains peaceful as a whole, as we witnessed several wars in the world during the last half a century from Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas where war was happening within the country from local or foreign invention,” he added.

Bangladesh has to fix policy keeping in mind its reliable business partnership as the turmoil would be continued for a long time, Touhid said.

Umme Salma, speaking on strategic issues, said the world is being polarized among different big powers; Bangladesh needs a smart strategy and partnership keeping in consideration the security and financial benefits.

The Ukraine turmoil has created security concerns in Europe and many EU countries increased their military expenses by more than 2 per cent of GDP, she said.

Ukraine industries depend on 30 per cent of Russia while the EU heavily depends on Russian gas, oil and coal energies, so the war affected Russia and Europe, Salma said.

Parvez Karim said Russia is 3rd in oil production, 2nd in gas stock in the world, Ukraine and Russia exported one-third wheat in the global market.

The panelists took questions from the audience that included academics, security experts, and foreign policy students.

Parvez Karim Abbasi said offshore exploration for hydrocarbon is a necessity.

A dispassionate appraisal of the economic situation and a collective consensus on the way forward is a need of the hour, he said.

"We must draw lessons from economic crises in the region," Abbasi mentioned.