The Rise of Gerontocracies in an Ageing World

Despite living longer lives, the aged are opposed to raising official retirement ages, reducing retirement benefits, or raising taxes on the elderly. They are increasingly protesting, resisting, and demanding that retirement ages stay the same and benefits remain intact.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that planet Earth is evolving into the planet of the aged. In nearly every country, the numbers and percentages of people aged 65 and older have risen rapidly.

Consequently, the elderly have gained significant influence in offices and institutions, advancing their demands and aspirations. These developments have led to the formation of gerontocracies that dictate policies, programmes, and expenditures, often without truly representing their populations.

In 1950, the aged accounted for only 5% of the world’s population, totalling 128 million. Today, the proportion has doubled to 10%, or 854 million people. Since 1950, the elderly population has nearly septupled.

In 2000, only three countries – Italy, Japan, and Monaco – had more elderly than children under 18. By 2025, this demographic reversal will extend to about 45 countries and territories. For example, in Italy, the elderly made up 25% of the population, compared with 15% for children under 18. In Japan, the reversal is starker, with 30% elderly and only 14% children.

By 2050, the elderly are projected to account for 17% of the global population. By 2080, those aged 65 and older are expected to outnumber children under 18. By the end of the century, nearly one in four people – close to 2.5 billion – will belong to the elderly population.

In many countries, including permanent members of the UN Security Council, the proportions will be even higher. For instance, by 2100, the elderly are expected to make up 34% of the population in France and the UK, and 41% in China.

By 2025, countries such as Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, and Portugal are expected to have about one-quarter of their populations in the elderly category, rising to one-third by 2050.

Gerontocracies often craft policies that neglect the needs of younger generations. Such societies risk legislative stagnation, entrenched political systems, and failure to address long-term challenges like climate change, food insecurity, environmental degradation, and pollution. They may also stifle innovation, reduce scientific research, and create barriers for young researchers.

Life expectancy has also risen. In 1950, men and women aged 65 lived an additional 11 and 12 years, respectively. By 2025, these figures had increased to 16 years for men and 19 years for women, and are projected to rise further by the century’s end.

Although 90% of the global population in 2025 – around 7.4 billion people – will not be elderly, many world leaders are significantly older than their citizens. In some cases, leaders are more than twice the median age of their populations.

This raises concerns about cognitive decline, reduced flexibility, resistance to new ideas, health issues, and policy priorities skewed toward the elderly. Dementia risk, which doubles approximately every five years after 65, is a particularly serious concern.

Voting power also lies disproportionately with the elderly, as they vote more consistently than younger generations. They are generally more conservative and prioritise policies related to pensions and healthcare.

This demographic shift is straining national retirement systems. While solutions such as raising retirement ages, increasing taxes, or limiting benefits have been proposed, the elderly often resist such measures. Instead, they have embraced pro-natalist policies, promoted family values, and emphasised patriotism to boost fertility rates, though these efforts have largely failed.

In conclusion, with their rising numbers, growing influence, and increasing presence among world leaders, the elderly are reshaping societies. Earth is truly witnessing the rise of the planet of the aged.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his book “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials.”