The Profound Rise of the Elderly

The elderly are not only growing in number and percent of the world population, but they are also experiencing increasing longevity, a welcomed blessing for humanity. Credit- Shutterstock

By Joseph Chamie

PORTLAND, USA, Mar 25 2025 (IPS) - The 20th century ushered in the profound rise of the elderly. During the 21st century, the elderly as a result of their rising numbers and growing proportions of country populations will be increasingly impacting government policies, programs and expenditures.

Prior to the 20th century, the proportion of the world’s population aged 65 years and older was likely around 2 to 3%. By 1900, that proportion is estimated to have increased to approximately 4% with the elderly numbering about 66 million. By the middle of the 20th century, the world’s elderly proportion aged 65 years and older is estimated to have reached 5% and their number nearly doubled to 126 million (Figure 1).

At the start of the 21st century, the percent of the world’s population who were elderly increased to 7 percent and they numbered about 422 million. Today the estimated percent elderly is 10 percent, double the 1950 level. The number of people aged 65 years and older in 2025 is estimated to be about 857 million, which is approximately seven times the number of elderly in 1950.

The world’s elderly are not only growing in number and percent of the world’s population, but they are also experiencing increasing longevity, a welcomed blessing for humanity.

In 1950, the life expectancies of the world’s population at ages 65 and 80 years were about 11 and 5 years, respectively. Over the subsequent decades, the life expectancies for the elderly increased, reaching nearly 16 and 7 years at the beginning of the 21st century. The life expectancies at ages 65 and 80 years today are estimated to be close to 18 and 8 years, respectively (Figure 2).

Furthermore, the proportion of the world’s population aged 80 years and older, which was 0.6% in 1950, more than doubled to 1.6% by the close of the 20th century. Today the proportion of the world’s population aged 80 years and older has increased to nearly 2.1% and is expected to more than double to 4.6% by 2050 and double again to 9.3% by the year 2100.

The life expectancies of the elderly are also expected to continue rising in the years ahead. By the close of the 21st century, for example, the life expectancies at ages 65 and 80 years are expected to reach 22 and 11 years, respectively, or double the 1950 levels.

It is also noteworthy that as women generally live longer than men, a clear majority of the elderly are women. Today approximately 55% of the world’s 857 million persons aged 65 years and older are women. At older ages the sex imbalance is even larger. Among the world’s 170 million people aged 80 years and older, for example, about 62% are women.

Considerable diversity exists across countries in the life expectancies of the elderly. The estimated levels for 2025 among some developed countries, such as Japan, France and Australia, are approximately double the life expectancies of the elderly among some developing countries, such as Nigeria, Chad and Togo (Figure 3).

For example, while Japan’s estimated life expectancies for the elderly in 2025 at ages 65 and 80 years are 23 and 11 years, respectively, the corresponding life expectancies for Nigeria’s elderly are 12 and 5 years.

Moreover, the differences among countries with respect to elderly life expectancies are expected to persist throughout the 21st century. By 2100, the projected life expectancies for Japan at ages 65 and 80 years are 30 and 16 years, respectively, versus 14 and 6 years for Nigeria at those ages (Figure 4).

The rising numbers and proportions of the elderly combined with their increasing longevity have important economic, social and political consequences for countries and their citizens.

Perhaps the most evident consequence today concerns government financed retirement programs for the elderly. As the numbers and the proportions of the elderly increase, the retirement benefits for the elderly create financial strains on the viability of national programs.

To address the increasing costs of national retirement programs, some governments are raising the official retirement ages in order to receive full benefits. Other governments are considering raising taxes and also reducing retirement benefits.

Another important consequence of the rising numbers and proportions of the elderly is their increasing needs for healthcare. Those needs lead to greater spending on medical care, long-term assistance and pharmaceuticals. And among the common health concerns of the elderly are heart ailments, arthritis, Alzheimer’s, osteoporosis, diabetes, obesity, urinary incontinence, social isolation, depression, hearing loss and falls.

In addition to medical care, many of the elderly, especially at the older ages, are in need of assistance, caregiving and help with activities of daily living.

In most developing countries the elderly usually reside with extended family members. In developed countries, in contrast, the elderly typically live with a spouse, followed by many living by themselves.

Without adequate government funding and services, people, in particular women, face increased pressures to provide care and assistance to their elderly relatives. In many instances, those pressures lead to strains, stresses and personal burnout for the caregivers.

The rising numbers and proportions of the elderly can also lead to political controversies among the different generations, especially regarding government expenditures, taxes, pensions and healthcare.

One increasingly important area of difference between the generations concerns the amount of government funds and resources that should be provided to the elderly versus to the young. In particular, the elderly and young adults are likely to have differing views regarding the appropriate balance of government resources and support allocated to eldercare versus childcare.

The elderly are more likely to back financial increases for pensions and limit spending on education. Also, the elderly are more likely to be politically conservative and emphasize tradition, customs and ritual. In contrast, young adults are more likely to be politically liberal, stress individual freedoms, and embrace innovation and changing social norms.

In sum, the profound rise of the world’s elderly that was ushered in during the 20th century is continuing throughout the 21st century.

As a result of their growth in absolute numbers and relative proportions of the world’s population coupled with their increasing longevity, the rise of the elderly is having significant consequences for countries and their citizens. Recognizing, understanding and preparing for the profound rise of the elderly will not only facilitate this historic transition but it will also contribute substantially to addressing its many important consequences.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.