Bangladesh Set to Overtake China in Cotton Imports

If the prediction holds, Bangladesh will regain its position as the world's largest cotton importer, a status it has held multiple times in recent years, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic. The USDA's report, published last week, estimates Bangladesh’s cotton imports will reach 8 million bales by the end of the 2024-25 year, up from the previously forecasted 7.8 million bales. This increase is attributed to rising purchase orders for ready-made garments.

In the 2023-24 trading year, Bangladesh imported over 7.5 million bales of cotton, with each bale weighing 480 pounds (218 kilograms). Despite the USDA’s optimistic forecast, textile mill owners in Bangladesh highlight ongoing challenges, particularly the gas crisis, which has led to underutilization of production capacity and increased costs.

Additionally, reductions in sector incentives have hindered domestic yarn production, making it harder to compete with imports from India. This has led to an increase in yarn imports from India, further impacting the sector’s capacity.

The USDA’s initial October report had projected that China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan would collectively account for 65% of global cotton imports, with China importing 8 million bales, Vietnam 7.1 million, Bangladesh 7.8 million, and Pakistan 4.8 million. However, the revised February report shows a decrease in China’s expected cotton imports, now estimated at 7.3 million bales, with imports to Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Pakistan increasing by 200,000–300,000 bales each.

Khorshed Alam, Director of the Bangladesh Textile Mill Owners Association (BTMOA), acknowledged the USDA’s forecast but pointed out that a large portion of mill capacity remains unused due to the ongoing energy crisis. "In reality, 40-50% of production capacity remains idle due to the gas crisis, so actual cotton imports will likely be lower than projected," Alam said. Additionally, a significant share of the cotton imported into Bangladesh is likely to be in the form of yarn from India.

Despite these challenges, Bangladesh's textile sector continues to be a significant player on the global stage. In the 2021-22 trading year, Bangladesh imported 8.4 million bales of cotton to support its primary export sector. During the same period, China imported 12.7 million bales, though its imports declined significantly in the following year. This year, China’s imports have once again decreased sharply.

In terms of volume, Bangladesh’s textile sector saw a 39% increase in cotton imports last year, bringing the total to 1.889 million tons, valued at 453.74 billion taka. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) also reported that 1.2 million tons of yarn were imported, amounting to 457.13 billion taka.

While the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) reports that the country has 519 spinning mills, many remain closed or operate at reduced capacity due to the energy crisis. BTMA President Shawkat Aziz Rasel confirmed that while Bangladesh is largely self-sufficient in yarn production, the gas crisis continues to disrupt operations, leaving export-oriented garment factories to rely on imports to meet demand.

With strong purchase orders for the next three to four months, Bangladesh’s garment sector remains a global leader, but local mills face ongoing challenges in supplying the necessary yarn, impacting the broader textile supply chain.