Turkey-Israel Tensions Escalate Over Syria’s Post-Assad Future

The downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad has amplified the already strained relations between Turkey and Israel, with their clashing interests in Syria pushing the two nations toward a potential confrontation.

Turkey, which has long supported opposition groups against Assad, has positioned itself as a key player in Syria's future. It advocates for a stable, unified Syria, with a central government maintaining control over the entire country. Turkey welcomed a significant development this week, when Syria's interim government signed an agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate with the Syrian government and army.

On the other hand, Israel is deeply suspicious of Syria's new interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, citing his connections to al-Qaeda. Israel is also wary of Turkey's growing influence in Damascus and appears to prefer Syria remain fragmented, especially after Assad turned the country into a battleground for Iran and its proxies.

"Syria has essentially become a battleground for proxy warfare between Turkey and Israel, which clearly view each other as regional competitors," noted Asli Aydintasbas from the Brookings Institution. "This is a dangerous dynamic, as Turkish and Israeli positions clash in every aspect of Syria’s transition."

In the aftermath of Assad's fall, Israel took control of territory in southern Syria, a move it claims is necessary to keep hostile groups away from its border. Both the Syrian government and the United Nations have condemned Israel's actions as violations of a 1974 ceasefire agreement and called for Israeli withdrawal. Israel, meanwhile, has conducted airstrikes targeting Assad's military assets and has made it clear it intends to maintain a long-term military presence in the region.

Analysts suggest that Israel is concerned about the possibility of Turkey expanding its military footprint in Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has launched several operations in northern Syria to counter Kurdish militias tied to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). It has also maintained a strong presence in the north, through military bases and alliances with groups opposed to Assad.

Turkish defense officials announced that Turkey and Syria will cooperate on strengthening security, with a military delegation scheduled to visit Syria next week.

Nimrod Goren, president of the Mitvim Institute, emphasized the contrasting positions of Turkey and Israel. “While Turkey seeks a strong, centralized Syria, Israel seems to prefer a fragmented Syria, which it believes would enhance its security.”

Israel's concerns about al-Sharaa's Islamist ties and his consolidation of power reflect fears of a growing “jihadist threat” along its northern border. Israeli officials have also made clear their stance against a Syrian military presence near Damascus, even threatening to intervene in defense of the Druze minority, who live on both sides of the Israeli-Syrian border, following clashes between Druze armed factions and Syria’s new security forces.

Turkey and Israel's once-strong alliance has deteriorated over the past two decades, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's leadership fueling tensions. Erdogan has been a vocal critic of Israel's policies toward Palestinians, while Israel has condemned Erdogan's support for Hamas, a group it designates as a terrorist organization. After the Gaza conflict, Turkey severed trade ties with Israel and joined South Africa in filing a genocide case against Israel at the UN International Court of Justice.

Asli Aydintasbas suggests that Turkey’s concerns have grown as it perceives Israel to be backing autonomy movements among Syria's Kurdish, Druze, and Alawite communities. Erdogan recently warned Israel that any efforts to provoke ethnic and religious divisions in Syria would not succeed.

Tensions reached a new high last week when factions loyal to the new Syrian government—reportedly including some backed by Turkey—launched attacks on members of Assad's Alawite sect, resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. Erdogan condemned the violence, calling it an attack on Syria's territorial integrity and social stability. Israeli officials, however, labeled the violence as “ethnic cleansing” led by a “jihadist Islamist terror group” backed by Turkey.

In response, Israel has increased its involvement in southern Syria, offering both protection and economic aid to the Druze community amid escalating sectarian violence. Israel has sent humanitarian aid to the Druze and allowed some to cross into Israeli-controlled territory in the Golan Heights for work.

While al-Sharaa initially expressed a desire to avoid conflict with Israel, his rhetoric has grown more confrontational. In a recent Arab League speech, he condemned Israel’s actions as violations of Syrian sovereignty and a threat to regional peace.

Aydintasbas warned that the deepening tensions between Turkey and Israel could lead to further instability in the region. "Previously, Israel and Turkey would engage in spats but could keep their security interests separate," she said. "Now, they are actively undermining each other, and the question remains whether they understand each other’s red lines."

A report by the Institute for National Security Studies suggested that Israel might benefit from engaging with Turkey, the regional power with significant influence over Syria’s leadership, to reduce the risk of military conflict between Israel and Syria.