Rubio Lowers Hopes for Ukraine-Russia Talks in Turkey

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday tempered expectations for the upcoming Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul, as both sides entered the negotiations amid deep mistrust and public insults.

“We don’t have high expectations for what will happen tomorrow,” Rubio said following a NATO meeting in Antalya, aligning with President Donald Trump’s view that no real progress can be made until he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin directly.

The Istanbul talks will be the first direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in three years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed he would send a delegation led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, though he expressed little optimism, accusing Moscow of lacking seriousness about ending the war.

“There’s no real intention on their part to negotiate seriously,” Zelensky said after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Despite this, he stated that, “out of respect” for Erdoğan and Trump, Ukraine would participate.

Confusion surrounded the talks for much of the day as both delegations traded verbal attacks and uncertainty loomed over Ukraine’s attendance. Eventually, Zelensky confirmed that Umerov and a group of deputy-level officials were on their way from Ankara to Istanbul, with talks expected to begin Thursday night or Friday.

Kyiv voiced frustration over Russia’s delegation, calling it a “dummy” team led by Vladimir Medinsky, a hardliner with no real decision-making power, who also led the failed 2022 talks and has questioned Ukraine’s sovereignty. Zelensky had called on Putin to attend personally, saying, “The Kremlin leader must show leadership. If he is truly ready for talks, we must meet.”

Despite the criticism, Russia’s delegation signalled readiness for dialogue. Medinsky said Moscow is open to “possible compromises” and hopes to address the root causes of the conflict. However, Russia continues to demand sweeping territorial concessions, military neutrality from Ukraine, and even Zelensky’s removal—conditions Kyiv and its allies firmly reject.

“We are committed to constructive discussions and want to identify possible solutions and areas of agreement,” Medinsky said after meeting Turkish officials. Russia views the talks as a continuation of the 2022 efforts, though circumstances have shifted significantly since then.

Tens of thousands have died since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, and Moscow currently controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory. With the sides drifting further apart, hopes for meaningful progress remain slim.

Ahead of the talks, tensions escalated as Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Zelensky a “clown” and “loser,” while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described him as “pathetic” for attempting to draw Putin into the talks personally.

Zelensky reiterated that a ceasefire is Ukraine’s immediate priority but remained doubtful about Moscow’s sincerity. “Although I still believe Russia does not genuinely want to end the war, I’m willing to push for a halt to the fighting.”

President Trump echoed Rubio’s view, saying no real movement is possible without direct engagement with Putin. “I don’t believe anything’s going to happen until he and I meet,” he said.

Rubio is expected to arrive in Istanbul on Friday, as pressure mounts for progress in negotiations that may still prove largely symbolic.