Syria warns against new instability amid fragile transition

Parts of northern Syria, including Idleb (pictured) show the impact of 14 years of civil war.

A senior UN official has warned about the impact of regional escalation on Syria as the country continues on the path to political transition following the overthrow of the Assad regime last December and nearly 14 years of devastating civil war.

“Syria simply cannot withstand another wave of instability,” UN Deputy Special Envoy Najat Rochdi said on Tuesday in a briefing to the Security Council in New York.

“The risks of further escalation in the region are not hypothetical – they are immediate, severe, and risk unraveling the fragile progress toward peace and recovery in Syria.”

She echoed the Secretary-General’s condemnation of military escalation in the Middle East and his call on Israel and Iran to show maximum restraint.

The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, has also expressed growing alarm over the potential consequences of any further escalation, which she also conveyed.

‘Constructive and cooperative’ engagement

Ms. Rochdi reported on the Special Envoy’s ongoing engagement in recent months, including meetings with senior officials in Damascus, such as interim foreign minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani.

Their discussions focused on recent positive developments in international relations, as well as the importance of prioritizing domestic affairs toward a genuinely inclusive political transition in which all Syrians have a stake.

Overall, the meetings with Syrian officials “were marked by a constructive and cooperative tone, with a shared interest in strengthening engagement with the United Nations across multiple sectors,” she said.

Road to transition

“Particular attention was given to the next steps in the transition and to coordinating efforts with the newly established committees on transitional justice and missing persons,” she added.

Among the important next steps is the establishment of a new People’s Assembly as the transitional legislative authority. In this regard, she welcomed the recent presidential decree announcing the appointment of a supreme committee for elections to the Assembly.

Developments in the northeast

Turning to the northeast, Ms. Rochdi referred to the 10 March deal reached between the interim authorities and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls the region, to integrate the Kurdish-led group into the national army.

The agreement “continues to present a historical opportunity to solve one of the key outstanding issues in this conflict and restore Syria’s sovereignty and unity, a priority which the Special Envoy discussed with interim Foreign Minister Shaibani.”

She also welcomed recent detainee exchanges and cooperation that enabled several Syrian families at the Al-Hol camp to return to the northwest. Thousands of people from several countries have been held for years at the notorious complex for their alleged ties to ISIL extremists.

“We stress the importance of negotiations moving forward in earnest with bold steps and an active spirit of compromise from both sides to implement the 10 March agreement,” Ms. Rochdi told ambassadors.

“This is a priority for stability in Syria and the region, for the restoration of Syria’s sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity, and for the success of the overall political transition.”

Attacks against specific communities

She noted that sporadic violent incidents continued in Homs, Hama, and other regions, including killings, kidnappings, and infringements on individual liberties.

Furthermore, some of the people the Special Envoy met in Damascus voiced concern over ongoing attacks targeting specific communities and groups, including Alawites, Druze, and women.

“While many interlocutors emphasized that these incidents did not appear to be systematic or part of official policy, they highlighted the persistent challenges faced by the interim authorities in controlling certain groups — whether affiliated with the interim authorities or operating independently,” she said.

Ms. Rochdi also pointed to encouraging signs that the interim authorities have taken steps to ease tensions, such as the recent issuance of a fatwa prohibiting revenge killings and extrajudicial retaliation.

Respect Syria’s sovereignty

Meanwhile, other security challenges persist, with sporadic and limited acts of violence this month, including at a border post with Iraq, on contact lines in Deir-ez-Zor, and in rural Homs.

“The southwest saw a serious incident of Israeli artillery fire and airstrikes on military sites and weapons depots across southern Syria, in response to a rare incident of small rocket fires out of Syria into the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan,” she continued, noting that two groups unaffiliated with the interim authorities claimed responsibility.

Additionally, Israeli incursions, arrests, and drone strikes occurred last week in Beit Jinn in the Damascus countryside, which she said are unacceptable and must cease.

“Syria’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity must be respected, along with the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement. Diplomacy is possible and must be prioritized,” she said.

Ms. Rochdi further reported that “ongoing activity by ISIL remains notable, including attacks on SDF positions, and a US drone strike on an ISIL figure in northwest Syria.”

Returnees and economic measures

Before concluding, Ms. Rochdi reported that despite the fragile security and socioeconomic situation in their homeland, nearly 600,000 people are estimated to have returned to Syria in the past six months, mostly from neighboring countries.

An estimated 1.34 million displaced people inside Syria have also gone back to their areas of origin during the same period.

She said the UN continues to welcome and encourage international actions contributing to the reactivation of Syria’s economy. They include a six-month waiver of some US sanctions, the European Union’s lifting of economic sanctions, and a broad range of transactions authorized by the United Kingdom to facilitate commercial activity in some key sectors.

Dire humanitarian situation

Meanwhile, three-quarters of Syria’s population still require humanitarian aid, which includes returnees and displaced people, UN deputy relief chief Joyce Msuya told the Council.

Unexploded ordnance continues to pose a significant threat with at least 414 people killed since December, and nearly 600 injured.

“A third of these victims are children,” she said. “This threat is also a key concern for displaced people who want to return to their homes.”

Worsening cholera outbreak

Syria’s health systems remain overwhelmed. Fewer than 60 per cent of hospitals and less than half of primary healthcare centers are fully functional.

She also warned that a cholera outbreak risks worsening due to population displacement, disruptions to water systems, and drought.

Syria, along with much of the region, is experiencing its worst dry spell in more than three decades, which is likely to shrink agricultural output. Up to three-quarters of the wheat crop — enough to feed 16 million people for a year — is at risk of failure at a time when more than half the population is already going hungry.

UN support continues

Ms. Msuya said the UN and partners continue to do what they can to provide critical assistance and make the most of limited resources available to them.

“We are now in the final stages of transitioning to a more effective and unified humanitarian coordination model, one that harnesses the efforts of organizations operating across the country under the leadership of the Humanitarian Coordinator in Damascus,” she said.

Humanitarians have reached nearly 2.5 million people with vital aid each month, and she underscored the need for more funding to continue operations.

“Nearly halfway through the year, our humanitarian appeal has received only $260 million — just 13 per cent of the requirements for this period,” she said.