Middle East War Pushes Caribbean Food Prices Higher

A farmer in Gonaives, Haiti shows his plantain crop.

Six weeks after war erupted in the Middle East, its economic shockwaves have spread to the Caribbean, a region already under pressure amid fears of a looming El Niño-linked climate disaster.

Highlighting the import-dependent nature of many Caribbean islands, UN researchers warned on Wednesday that the conflict, particularly disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz and global energy supplies, has triggered one of the most significant trade shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Low-income households are expected to be the worst affected, according to analysis partnered by the UN World Food Programme (WFP). Crude oil prices surged to more than $114 per barrel earlier this year, alongside rising shipping costs, insurance premiums, and delivery delays.

“Even with a fragile ceasefire now in place, volatility remains high, and the Caribbean, heavily reliant on imported food, is feeling the pressure quickly,” the report notes.

At the same time, experts warn there is a 61% chance of an El Niño event by mid-2026. Historically, El Niño has brought heatwaves, droughts, and crop failures to already vulnerable Caribbean nations.

Key concerns

Fuel shock driving food inflation: Higher oil and shipping costs are increasing prices of imported food, electricity, and transport, squeezing household budgets across the region.

Heavy import dependence: Caribbean nations rely heavily on imported food, leaving them exposed to global price swings and supply chain disruptions.

Rising drought risks: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates about a 60% chance of El Niño conditions this year, which could bring severe dry spells to countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago.

High food insecurity: Food prices have risen by 55–60% since 2018, leaving many families struggling and keeping insecurity well above pre-pandemic levels.

Repeated disasters: Events such as Hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa last October have weakened household resilience, making even small shocks harder to absorb.

Warning signs

In Belize, authorities are preparing for possible drought conditions, while farmers across the Caribbean fear reduced harvests due to falling rainfall and rising temperatures.

For low-income households, the impact could be severe, as food and transport account for a large share of spending. Even small price increases may force families to cut meals, switch to cheaper and less nutritious diets, or take on debt.

Small-scale farmers and fishers are also at risk, facing higher operating costs alongside worsening weather patterns.

Experts say the coming months will be critical. Without swift action to stabilise markets, support incomes, and protect food production, the region could slip into a deeper crisis.

Even if global conditions improve, the long-term effects may persist, leaving the Caribbean trapped in a cycle of rising prices, climate shocks, and growing food insecurity.