Climate Change to Deepen Heat Death Gap Between Rich, Poor

Climate change is projected to cause around 430,000 additional deaths annually by 2050, with poor countries facing about 10 times more fatalities than wealthier nations due to limited access to electricity-powered cooling, according to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab.

The report found that while rising temperatures are likely to drive greater adoption of air conditioning in wealthy countries, many heat-vulnerable regions will lack the energy resources needed to use cooling systems and protect lives.

"Bangladesh is a clear example of why electricity access and electricity use are not the same thing. Nearly the whole country already has power access, yet people in the hardest-hit regions are not using much more of it, even as heat deaths there are projected to climb," said Ashwin Rode, Director of Scientific Research at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and Fellow at the Climate Impact Lab.

He said having an electricity connection does not necessarily mean people can increase power consumption to adapt to extreme heat.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, said air conditioning can save lives, and wealthier countries are expected to see increased adoption as temperatures rise.

However, he warned that many countries will not have the same ability to adapt.

The report said electricity consumption for cooling is projected to increase seven times more in middle-income countries than in low-income countries due to climate change.

In low-income countries, the projected increase in electricity use per person would be so limited that it would only provide enough energy to power a single LED bulb for four months.

The study identified 18 countries with a combined population of 676 million people that face a dangerous combination of extreme heat and inadequate access to cooling.

Around 377,000 people annually by 2050 are projected to die in these areas due to rising temperatures and limited energy access. Most affected countries are in northern sub-Saharan Africa, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad, while others are in South Asia, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Myanmar.

The report highlighted the contrast between poorer hot countries and wealthier nations with similar climates. Gulf countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia experience extreme heat but have much higher electricity consumption for cooling, resulting in fewer projected heat-related deaths.

The researchers said expanding reliable energy access, introducing heat early warning systems, improving healthcare access and implementing targeted social programmes will be essential to protect vulnerable communities.

The Climate Impact Lab said it is developing a global roadmap to identify effective climate adaptation strategies and guide governments, funders and communities facing increasing climate risks.