Global Emissions Fall Slowly, Experts Urge Renewables Push

A large wind farm of turbines on the flat landscape of California.

The report, compiled by the UNFCCC secretariat, assesses 64 new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties between January 2024 and September 2025, covering about 30 percent of global emissions in 2019.

Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) and an expert on renewable energy and electrification, said it is encouraging to see the momentum in the latest NDCs, which are more ambitious and implementable than previous rounds.

“Renewables reached a record 582 GW of new capacity last year, but governments need to catch up. To achieve the tripling renewables goal and the 1.5°C pathway, the world must add roughly 1,100 GW every year until 2030. The direction is right, but the pace must double,” Douglas said.

He noted that emerging economies face financing challenges, slow permitting, grid constraints, and high capital costs, all of which delay renewable projects. “Solutions exist: faster permitting, predictable auctions, investment in grids and storage, and access to affordable finance. Governments and MDBs must create the certainty to unlock it,” he added.

A Decade of Progress—But Not Enough

The UN report acknowledges “new indications of real and increasing progress” on climate action, with Parties setting out targets differing in scale and pace from previous efforts. However, it warns that “Parties are bending their combined emission curve further downwards, but they are still not doing it quickly enough.”

The report stresses the need for accelerated action to ensure emission reductions reach all countries and peoples. Douglas said, “Markets are often moving faster than governments. We no longer have time for pledges; COP30 must deliver real project pipelines, clear timelines, and bankable frameworks.”

Economy-Wide Targets and Global Stocktake Alignment

The new NDCs are more comprehensive, with 89 percent of Parties communicating economy-wide targets, up from 81 percent previously. Eighty-eight percent indicated their NDCs were informed by the first Global Stocktake (GST), showing growing alignment with global science and ambition.

Emissions Trajectory and Sectoral Progress

The report finds that new NDCs could reduce projected emissions by 17 percent below 2019 levels. However, this falls far short of the 60 percent reduction by 2035 needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the IPCC.

Douglas highlighted that renewable energy, electrification of transport, and decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors must accelerate. He stressed the importance of just transition, social inclusion, and empowerment of women, youth, and Indigenous Peoples.

Natural Solutions and International Cooperation

Forests, oceans, and nature-based solutions remain central. REDD+ and ocean-based actions are increasingly integrated into NDCs. The report also emphasizes that international cooperation is essential, with 97 percent of Parties engaging with global partners for inclusive climate action.

Despite progress, the UN warns that major acceleration is still required to achieve faster and deeper emission reductions and to ensure the benefits of climate action reach all countries.