Defacto partition of Syria: People lose their say

Jehangir Hussain

US has its say, as do  Russia, Iran and Turkey

Jehangir Hussain

The defacto partition of Syria has robbed its people’s power to decide their future.  

The reality is that Syrians can’t Take the decisions any more, the US has its say, as have Russia, Iran and Turkey.

Ankara’s deepening civil and military role in northern Syria offers it a bridgehead to fight Kurdish forces.

If it expands further, it could attract more international scrutiny, say observers.

According to Turkish officials, every day 300 Turkish workers and some 200 trucks and their drivers pass in and out of the Öncüpınar crossing — one of eight along the 911 km Turkey-Syria border.

The scene reflects Turkey’s deepening role in shaping northern Syria’s future after launching military incursions to push back Kurdish militants of the YPG, which Ankara considers to be a terrorist organisation.

People’s Defence Units (the YPG) consists of ethnic Kurds, but also includes Arabs and foreign volunteers, closely allied to the Syrian military conflict.   

Since Turkish tanks first roared into Syria six years ago, the military operation has, over time, become a mission that touches virtually all spheres of security and civilian life in three enclaves, which, combined, are home to at least two million Syrians.

It represents the largest Turkish footprint in an Arab state since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918 — and it could be about to get bigger as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warns that he wants to extend Ankara’s control with a new offensive.

If he materialises his threats, it will heap more scrutiny on Turkey’s long-term strategy and the role of foreign actors in Syria, after more than a decade of conflict in Syria.

Backed by Russia, Iran and Iranian-aligned militias, president Assad has regained control of much of the country but presides over a shattered nation.

The remnants of the opposition have been driven to the north, where they rely on Turkey’s military muscle and financial aid.

In the north-east, Kurdish-led militias control more than a fifth of Syria, with US support and the effective protection of about 800 US troops.

Turkey has launched military incursions to push back the YPG from the border region.

The international efforts to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis produced no results.

The grim reality is that Syria’s de facto partition will last as long as foreign forces remain in the country.

No one likes to say it because it’s s politically controversial and the Americans don’t want to take the responsibility that they are contributing to that.

The Turks don’t want to take the responsibility either.

But foreign powers continue to remain in Syria, due to the dynamics and stakes of the conflict.

And as long as the foreign powers remain in Syria, the stalemate is likely to continue in Syria with its de facto partition.

Since Turkish takeover of three areas, Syrian schoolchildren have to learn Turkish as a second language.

The sick are treated in Turkish-built hospitals and the lights are kept on by Turkish-generated electricity.

The Turkish lira is the dominant currency and Turkey’s state-owned postal service, PTT, is used to transfer salaries to Syrian workers and host the bank accounts of local councils, according to reports.

The governors’ offices of Turkish border provinces oversee hiring and firing in adjacent Syrian regions.

According to reports, Turkey trains and pays the salary of more than 50,000 Syrian rebel fighters, has deployed its own troops inside Syria, built military bases on the frontier and an 873km-long border wall.

Turkey’s military objective in the area is to weaken the Kurdish militias, and their role in the battle against Islamic State to carve out their own territory.

They have established their own civil administrations in a region rich with much of Syria’s natural resources, including oil, gas and agricultural land.

The operations have put Turkish soldiers into foreign combat zones; costing  Ankara billions of dollars; strained relations with the US, Europe and Arab powers; drawing accusations of human rights violations and risked broader conflagrations with Syria and his external backers.

President Erdoğan, however, told Turkish MPs that he was planning a ‘new phase’ of his goal to create a 30km-deep ‘safe zone’ from the border to drive the Kurdish militants out of Manbij, a strategic city west of the Euphrates River, and Tal Rifaat, a smaller town further to the west.

‘We will clear Tal Rifaat and Manbij of terrorists,’ he said, ‘and we will do the same to other regions step by step.’

The west is ‘missing the point’ Western diplomats say there are few signs of significant Turkish military activity to suggest an operation against Kurdish forces is imminent, and Russia, Iran and the US have warned against any incursion deeper into Syria that would risk sparking a wider conflict.

But inside Syria, Turkish commanders have been telling the local opposition authorities to ready fighters of the Syrian National Army, the banner under which myriad rebel factions are grouped.

Syrian sources said that Turkey has deployed more troops and weapons across the border.

Most people know Turkey is here for its own interests, say  Syrians.

But Ankara’s prime fear is that the longer the YPG consolidates its hold over territory, the greater the chance it will seek to establish some form of Kurdish homeland — an idea that is anathema to Turkey that has spent 40 years fighting Kurdish separatists.

Turkey considers the YPG a national security threat.

The YPG came to the fore as a fighting force during the battle of Kobani after Isis seized the predominantly Kurdish Syrian border town during the jihadis’ blitz across Iraq and Syria in 2014.

It became the US partner of choice to take the battle to Isis in northeastern Syria under the umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of fighters dominated by the Kurdish militants that has been armed and trained by Washington.

But Turkey is in effect the ultimate protector of the area. Those clashes ended with Turkey and Russia reaching a ceasefire agreement and the main front lines have been stagnant since, underscoring the foreign actors’ influence over the fate of millions of Syrians.

Now, Ankara has varying degrees of responsibility for more than nine million  Syrians, including the refugees inside Turkey, just under half the Arab state’s pre-war population.

Turkey has 4,000 to 5,000 troops inside the areas it controls and some 8,000 soldiers around Idlib.

Ankara is grappling with the contradiction between Turkey’s professed desire for a unified Syria — not least to prevent any form of Kurdish state — while at the same time realising that Turkey is undermining the potential territorial integrity of Syria.

Most Turkish parties share president Edrogan’s concerns about Kurdish militias but criticise his decision to back the Syrian rebels.

All the large Turkish parties said, if they win power, they would re-establish relations with Damascus, a move they say would be a prelude to sending Syrians home.

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