Consequences of Iran-Israel conflict can go in which direction?

Consequences of Iran-Israel conflict can go in which direction?

Apr 15 - The outcome of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel now depends a lot on how Israel responds to Saturday night's attack.

According to BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner, many countries in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world are calling for restraint in this situation. There are also many countries that deeply dislike the Iranian government.

But now they also want Israel not to respond to this attack again.

On the other hand, Iran's attitude is more like this: 'Account settled - means payment has been made. By the way, it's better to end the matter here.'

"But yes, if you strike back at us again, we will launch a much more powerful attack - which you will not be able to repel," explains Frank Gardner, explaining Iran's mentality.

The Persian section of the BBC also says that not only the Iranian authorities, but also the common people of the country are quite happy with the result of last night's attack. They also cheered in the streets of Tehran.

If Israel does not attack again, then it is better to settle the matter here - such a mentality is also at work in Tehran. But Israel has already vowed a 'hard response'.

The current government in Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is described by many as the most 'radical' or hardline government in the country's history. Israel took only a few hours to respond to a surprise attack by Hamas in southern Israel on October 7.

Since then, for more than six months, they have been carrying out intense operations on the Gaza Strip, almost as if they were trying to raze Gaza to the ground.

What steps can Israel take against Iran now?

Frank Gardner believes that the possibility that Israel's 'war cabinet' will fold its hands without responding to this direct attack by Iran is very slim indeed.

So what avenues or 'options' are open to Israel now? First, they may heed their neighbors in the region and walk a path of 'strategic patience'. This means that they will continue to attack Iran's 'proxy allies' or partners in the region without launching any direct counter-attacks against Iran.

These include groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iran's military supply centers in Syria - which Israel has been attacking for years.

Second, Israel could launch a 'carefully calibrated' strike with long-range missiles similar to Iran's - specifically targeting the Iranian missile bases from which last night's attack was launched. .

But if Israel chooses this option, then Iran will see it as an 'escalation' or an attempt to increase the tension of the war. Because despite years of hostility, Israel has never directly attacked Iranian territory before. Rather, they have limited themselves to attacks against Iran's allies or proxy militias in the region. In a third way, Israel went one step further in its attempt to escalate the war – and counterattack much more powerfully than Iran did.

In that case, they would target not only specific missile bases, but also the bases, training camps and command-and-control centers of Iran's highly powerful Revolutionary Guards.

If Israel chooses either of these last two options, then Iran must again strike back.

Another very important question is, can America get involved in this conflict?

Could the situation be such that the US forces deployed in the Middle East and Iran start a full-scale firefight?

It should be remembered that only six countries in the Gulf Arab region have a US military presence. They also have military bases in Syria, Iraq and Jordan.

Despite years of international sanctions, Iran has developed a large stockpile of ballistic and other types of missiles, and these US military bases could become targets for those missiles.

Iran has long issued another warning - it will close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked.

If Iran were to block this strategically important sea route with mines, drones and fast attack craft, one of the world's busiest trade routes would be shut down and a quarter of the world's oil supply would be cut off.

That would certainly be a nightmare scenario – and that's why almost every powerful country in the world is working hard to avoid it.

What do the people of Iran think?

After Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) carried out drone and missile attacks on Israel, pro-government people in Iran took to the streets of Tehran to cheer, BBC Persian journalist Zia Gol reports.

The attack was critical to maintaining the acceptance of the IRGC among countries known to be allies or partners of Iran in the Middle East, and among its supporters inside Iran.

Iran's Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, said that the country's Notam Air Force Base was among the targets they attacked inside Israel.

It was from this base that the Israeli F-35 warplanes that killed seven IRGC commanders in the Iranian consulate in Damascus two weeks ago flew from the base.

Major General Bagheri also stated that Iran had 'achieved its objective' and had no intention of continuing the operation.

However, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has warned Israel that if any new attack (against Iran) is launched, Iran will respond very strongly. According to BBC correspondent Zia Gol, the overall mood in Iran seems to be in favor of de-escalation.  

Speaking from the country's top government and military officials, they seem to be 'satisfied' with the outcome of last night's attack. Also, the fact that Iran has given Israel plenty of time to consolidate its defenses, there is reason to believe that it is unwilling to launch another attack that could cause massive damage or loss of life.

But since the outcome of the Iran-Israel conflict is not dependent on either side - the world will have to keep a close eye on the situation for now..