Hurricane Rafael to Intensify Rapidly as It Nears Cuba

A surfer looks the waves crashing against the jetty at the Bal Harbour Lighthouse on Tuesday in Bal Harbour, Fla.

Hurricane Rafael, currently swirling past the Cayman Islands, is expected to rapidly strengthen before making landfall in western Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday. The island, already dealing with blackouts and recovering from a recent deadly storm, braces for another impact.

As of Tuesday, Rafael was positioned about 120 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth and 195 miles south-southeast of Havana, with sustained winds reaching 90 mph and moving northwest at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters warned of heavy rains, storm surges, and potential mudslides across Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Cuban authorities have issued evacuation orders for 37,000 residents in Guantanamo and urged citizens to prepare for landfall. Hurricane warnings cover the Cayman Islands and several Cuban provinces, including Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, and La Habana.

The U.S. State Department has advised American citizens in Cuba to consider leaving, while officials in the Cayman Islands have closed schools and government offices as residents prepare. Heavy rainfall is expected to extend into Florida and the southeastern U.S., with storm surges of up to 3 feet in the Lower Florida Keys.

Rafael is the 17th named storm in an active 2024 hurricane season, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts to be above average, with up to 25 named storms expected.