Global Food Demand Rising in Middle-Income Countries: UN Report

Rice field in Bali Indonesia.

As incomes rise in middle-income countries, demand for animal-sourced calories is increasing, leading to significant growth in global food production. This heightens the need for sustainable agriculture amid growing climate change concerns.

A new joint report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects a 6 percent rise in global per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish between 2025 and 2034. This increase is mainly driven by lower- and middle-income countries, where intake is expected to grow by 24 percent — four times the global average.

To meet this demand, global fish production is forecast to grow by 14 percent, especially in middle-income nations, opening opportunities for increased agricultural humanitarian support. Meat, dairy, and egg production are also expected to rise by 17 percent, supported by a 7 percent increase in global livestock inventories, including cattle, sheep, poultry, and pigs.

While more food will be available, it comes at an environmental cost. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are expected to increase by 6 percent over the next decade. However, FAO estimates that emissions could be reduced by 7 percent if productivity improves by 15 percent, thanks to the adoption of emission-reduction technologies.

The report highlights the crucial role of international trade in global food security. By 2034, 22 percent of all calories consumed globally are expected to be traded internationally, maintaining a trend observed over the past decade. Managing or expanding this share will require multilateral cooperation and a rules-based trade system to ensure supply chain security and prevent disruptions.

“We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “Coordinated policies are needed to keep food markets open while fostering long-term productivity and sustainability in agriculture.”

FAO Director-General QU Dongyu echoed these views, noting that while nutrition is expected to improve in many lower-income countries, persistent food insecurity remains in the world’s least developed nations. Low-income countries will continue to have a damagingly low per capita daily intake of animal-based calories — just 143 kcal, less than half of that of lower-middle-income countries, and far below the FAO’s recommended 300 kcal for a healthy and affordable diet.

Rising agricultural productivity is expected to lower commodity prices globally, increasing pressure on small-scale farmers. Larger operations benefit more from economies of scale, making it difficult for smallholders to compete unless they adapt to the changing agricultural landscape.

Key projections for 2025-2034 include:

Cereal production to grow 1.1 percent annually, driven by a 0.9 percent increase in crop yields. Harvest area will expand only 0.14 percent per year, less than half the rate of the previous decade.

In high-income countries, health concerns and food policies will reduce per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners.

By 2034, 40 percent of cereal crops will be consumed directly, 33 percent for animal feed, and 27 percent for biofuels and industrial uses.

Biofuel demand will grow 0.9 percent annually, led by Brazil, India, and Indonesia.

India and Southeast Asia will account for 39 percent of global consumption growth by 2034, up from 32 percent in the last decade, while China’s share declines from 32 percent to 13 percent.

The report concludes with a call to boost agricultural efficiency and adopt environmental technologies to achieve global goals of zero poverty and net-zero emissions.