Early Warning Systems Offer Triple Resilience Dividend

A buoy in a sea off Vladivostok, Russia, is tracking the movement of waves. Early warning systems are vital for effective disaster management. Credit: Unsplash/Ant Rozetsky

Significant progress has been made globally in implementing national and local disaster risk reduction strategies. Yet, the impact of disasters on lives and economies persists, and disaster resilience is one of the most regressed areas in Sustainable Development Goal implementation.

Moreover, climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of disasters. Under a 1.5°C warming scenario, average annualised losses could reach 2.4 per cent of GDP.

Traditionally, early warning systems (EWS) have focused on saving lives. While reasonable, this narrow framing often leaves potential co-benefits untapped. Given today’s strained economic and political context, investments in resilience must also generate broader economic and developmental benefits.

This potential payoff is no myth. Latest studies show that every US$1 invested in adaptation is expected to yield over $10.50 in benefits over a 10-year period.

The Triple Dividend of Resilience model offers a comprehensive rationale for investment, emphasising three interconnected benefits:

1. Saving Lives and Avoiding Losses

The 2024 Global Status on MHEWS found that countries with less comprehensive multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) have a disaster-related mortality ratio nearly six times higher than that of countries with ‘substantial’ to ‘comprehensive’ MHEWS. Moreover, providing just 24 hours’ notice of an impending storm can reduce potential damage by 30 per cent.

For small island developing states, this potential can be higher — one study found that over 80 per cent of Cyclone Evan’s economic destruction in Samoa, amounting to 28 per cent of the country’s GDP, could have been avoided through efficient EWS.

Largely untapped, heat early warning systems also have proven benefits — from saving lives (see Ahmedabad’s Heat Action Plan, which averts an estimated 1,190 heat-related deaths annually) to demonstrating clear economic benefits (for example, Adelaide’s Heat Health Warning System with a benefit-cost ratio of 2.0–3.3 by reducing heat-related hospital admissions and ambulance callouts).

2. Resource Management and Optimisation

EWS enhance decision-making across sectors such as agriculture, water management, and energy, providing reliable, timely forecasts to support more efficient and sustainable operations. Crop advisory services boost yields by an estimated $4 billion and $7.7 billion annually in India and China, respectively. Some studies demonstrate that a 1 per cent increase in forecast accuracy results in a 0.34 per cent increase in crop yields.

Similarly, fisherfolk earnings can be optimised when supported by Fishing Zone advisories that take into account the changing climate (in the same study, India’s fisherfolk are reported to earn Rs.17,820 more per trip when using the Potential Fishing Zone advisory of INCOIS).

3. Catalysing Investment and Co-benefits

In disaster-prone regions, the constant threat of extreme weather creates persistent uncertainty that discourages long-term investments, limits entrepreneurship, and shortens planning horizons. By improving hazard detection and forecasting, EWS boost confidence for both local and foreign investments.

Beyond economic gains, the third dividend also delivers social and environmental co-benefits, regardless of whether disasters occur. When EWSs are developed with active community involvement, social cohesion often follows (Viet Nam’s community-based early warning systems demonstrate this intangible benefit clearly).

Regional Collaboration and the Triple Dividend

Regional collaboration is a pathway to unlocking the triple dividend of resilience. A key outcome of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) in Seville reaffirmed the importance of multilateralism as a framework for addressing global challenges.

Initiatives like ESCAP’s multi-donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness have proven the success of pooled investments in regional early warning solutions. A recent cost-benefit analysis funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation reviewed 20 years of Trust Fund investments and found that each dollar invested had generated the equivalent of 3.7–5.5 dollars in benefits.

Established by the Trust Fund is an example of reduced DRR costs maximising benefits: the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) has developed into a fit-for-purpose operational hub, now supporting 62 countries across Asia, Africa, and the Pacific with advanced and interoperable early warning solutions.

Through shared infrastructure, forecasting data, and governance mechanisms, these partnerships help countries lower individual costs, improve transboundary risk monitoring, and attract more sustained technical and financial support.

These regional disaster risk management approaches go beyond saving lives and deliver social, economic, and environmental co-benefits — unlocking a cycle of development and risk reduction. As disasters become more complex with compounding and cascading impacts, our shared early warning systems should remain agile, sustained, and leverage advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Investing in Preparedness

Looking ahead, the payoff from preparedness will be realised when policy and financial environments are reframed to truly optimise the return on investment of sustained DRM efforts at all levels.

As the UNDRR Global Assessment Report 2025 highlights, disaster and climate risks must be embedded at the heart of financial decisions and policy frameworks — not simply seen as crises to respond to. To do this, dedicated financing mechanisms are required to ensure sustained and predictable support for regional DRM initiatives.

Of equal importance is national government support for the integration of EWS into national and regional development planning.

ESCAP is uniquely placed to support this shift by scaling multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver the triple dividend of resilience. The upcoming ESCAP Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction provides a timely opportunity for countries to endorse a forward-looking agenda that reinforces early warning as essential infrastructure.

In today’s climate-uncertain world, the policy case for investing in disaster resilience is clear. DRM is crucial not only for saving lives, but also as a driver of sustainable growth.

Authors: Temily Baker is Programme Management Officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Section (DRS); Morgan Schmeising Barnes is Intern, DRS; Sanjay Srivastava is Retired, Former Chief, DRS. SDGs: 1, 13, 17