Hormuz Oil Crisis May Cost Bangladesh $3.65bn: UNCTAD

Bangladesh could face an additional fuel import burden of about $3.65 billion a year if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz trigger a sustained rise in global oil prices, according to a new assessment by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

In its latest Strait of Hormuz monitor released on Wednesday, UNCTAD said a 50 percent increase in oil prices would raise Bangladesh’s annual oil import bill by around 0.8 percent of GDP, assuming import volumes remain unchanged from 2024 levels.

Based on FY25 GDP estimates, the increase would translate into roughly $3.65 billion in additional import costs.

The report warned that escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—a key global energy route—are already pushing up prices, with crude oil rising by more than 40 percent and gasoline by over 50 percent since late February.

UNCTAD said vulnerable oil-importing countries are likely to face higher import bills, rising inflation, and fiscal pressure if elevated energy prices persist.

Bangladesh is among several least developed countries projected to see oil import costs increase by more than 0.5 percent of GDP in the event of an oil price shock, although it is not among the most directly dependent on supplies passing through the strait.

The agency analyzed 75 vulnerable economies and found that 65 are net oil importers, with many heavily reliant on refined petroleum products. It estimated that a sustained 50 percent rise in refined oil prices could increase their combined import bill by over $20.4 billion annually.

UNCTAD cautioned that such shocks could force developing countries to divert resources away from development priorities to cover essential energy imports, creating difficult fiscal trade-offs.