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Bangladesh Forecasts Export Growth Amid Global Trade Shifts
Despite ongoing political instability, Bangladesh, a South Asian nation with a population of 180 million, is poised for significant export growth, according to projections from the Ministry of Finance based on insights from the World Trade Organization (WTO).
While global trade saw a contraction in 2023, the WTO forecasts a rebound, predicting a 2.6 percent increase in merchandise trade volume in 2024, followed by 3.3 percent in 2025. As inflation declines, consumer demand is expected to rise, further boosting exports.
Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), including Bangladesh, are expected to outpace advanced economies in export growth. EMDEs could see export increases of approximately 4 percent in the medium term, driven by faster economic growth compared to their advanced counterparts.
Bangladesh's export growth, which slowed to 3.93 percent in 2024 from 8.79 percent in 2023, is projected to pick up speed, reaching 8.83 percent by 2027. In contrast, the Euro area is expected to recover gradually, with export growth anticipated around 3 percent from 2025 onward.
Looking at global competitors, China's export growth is expected to remain moderate, between 1.8 percent and 2.85 percent through 2026, while India's exports are forecasted to rebound from a -2.76 percent contraction in 2023 to about 4 percent in 2025. The UK is facing a subdued outlook, with contractions in 2023 and 2024, followed by modest growth rates below 2 percent until 2027. In comparison, the USA is projected to maintain stable export growth of around 3 percent throughout the forecast period.
As exports recover, the document also highlights a rebound in imports, particularly for EMDEs, driven by infrastructure investments and expanding consumer markets. Bangladesh’s import volume is expected to recover sharply, rebounding from contraction in 2023 to modest growth of 4.1 percent in 2024, and robust growth of about 18.0 percent in 2025.
In contrast, advanced economies like the UK and USA are expected to see lower import growth, with the UK even facing negative growth in 2025. Meanwhile, India’s import growth is projected to accelerate from 4.8 percent in 2024 to 6.6 percent in 2025, contrasting with a declining trend in China’s import growth.
Overall, while global trade dynamics are shifting, Bangladesh appears well-positioned to navigate these changes and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the export market.