Modi Set to Benefit from Trump's Return to White House

Indian PM Narendra Modi and U.S. elected President Donald Trump

“I know today a lot of countries are nervous about the U.S., let’s be honest about that,” India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar remarked over the weekend, but assured that India was not among them. Jaishankar pointed out that Modi’s close ties with Trump were evident from the fact that the Indian leader’s call was one of the first Trump took after being elected in 2016.

Experts predict that a second Trump presidency could favor New Delhi, especially as Modi works to recalibrate India’s ties with the West, following recent tensions over his stance on Russia and concerns over India’s democratic backsliding. Modi has notably resisted joining Western sanctions on Russia and has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drawing criticism from democratic nations. His government has also been accused of marginalizing minorities and curbing press freedoms.

According to Michael Kugelman, South Asia director at the Wilson Center, Trump’s victory would likely ease these tensions. "The Indian policies that have put New Delhi at odds with the West will no longer be a concern for Washington," he said. While issues such as trade, immigration, and climate change could still create friction, the overall tone of India-U.S. relations is expected to warm under Trump’s leadership.

Modi has long positioned India as a rising global power with a growing economy, capable of countering China’s influence. But critics argue that his increasingly authoritarian rule and the polarizing influence of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have strained India’s democracy. During President Joe Biden’s visit to India last year, activists pushed for a confrontation on human rights, although the two leaders went on to sign significant defense and technology agreements.

With Trump, these concerns would likely be sidelined. “He is a refreshing reset from the Indian perspective… much more transactional,” said Uday Chandra, an expert on South Asian foreign policy. Trump's more pragmatic, "America First" approach means he is unlikely to challenge Modi over domestic policy concerns, which have become a point of tension with liberal Western leaders.

One of the most significant points of convergence between Trump and Modi is their respective relationships with Russia. Trump, who has openly admired Russian President Vladimir Putin, is likely to show greater understanding of India’s long-standing strategic ties with Moscow. India’s historic defense partnerships with Russia and its reluctance to side with the West in the Ukraine conflict have been a source of friction with Washington. But Chandra believes these differences would not pose an issue under Trump. “This was a real thorn in India-U.S. relations… but with Trump, I don’t see this being an issue,” he said.

On trade, however, there could be challenges. During his first term, Trump clashed with India over tariffs on U.S. goods, especially farm products and motorcycles. His administration even stripped India of preferential trade status in 2019, prompting retaliatory tariffs. Trump's proposal for a "universal" tariff on imports, including goods from India, could reignite tensions. “New Delhi will have to do more than just tinker with its policies to deal with Trump’s emphasis on fair trade,” said C. Rajamohan, a professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore.

Immigration could also become a point of contention. India has been the largest recipient of H-1B work visas, but Trump has criticized the program, calling it unfair to U.S. workers. If he attempts to further restrict skilled migration, it could impact India, which relies on the U.S. as a key destination for its tech talent.

The Trump administration's stance on climate change could also derail the progress made under Biden. While India and the U.S. had collaborated on clean energy initiatives over the past four years, experts warn that Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies could undo much of that progress. "A Trump administration is more aligned with the fossil fuel industry than with green technology," said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Both Trump and Modi are known for their populist, nationalist politics, using strongman tactics to rally their bases and consolidate power. They both thrive on polarization, appealing to their supporters by framing political opposition as a threat to their nations. Unlike many liberal Western leaders, Trump does not view Modi’s domestic policies as a challenge. “They’re both ardent nationalists committed to making their nations stronger at home and abroad,” said Kugelman.

The personal bond between Trump and Modi also plays a crucial role. During Trump’s visit to India in 2020, Modi organized a grand event at the world’s largest cricket stadium. A year earlier, Trump held a massive rally for Modi in Texas, where he likened the Indian leader’s popularity to that of Elvis Presley. In his recent congratulatory message to Trump, Modi shared photos of the two leaders laughing, hugging, and holding hands, underscoring their strong personal and political rapport.

“There’s a bromance between the two,” said Chandra. "But they’re also united by a shared worldview — that we are in a post-liberal world, and that liberalism as an ideology for conducting global politics is no longer viable. That’s as true in India as it is in America."

As Trump moves toward the presidency again, it appears that India’s close ties with the U.S. are set to strengthen, albeit through a lens of nationalism, pragmatism, and mutual admiration.