Myanmar Coup at Five: War Drags On With No End in Sight

Prosthetics marketed by I-Walk at an event marking resistance to Myanmar’s military coup of five years ago. The enterprise has a waiting list of over 3,000 people.

Five years of conflict since the military seized power have reduced Myanmar to a failed state, taking a devastating toll in lives lost and infrastructure destroyed. With all sides pursuing total victory, however, there is no end in sight to the war.

Levels of medieval brutality, amplified by modern technology, have enabled the military junta—backed by China—to swing the fortunes of war in its favour, often through air strikes and drone attacks on civilian targets. Torched villages now lie deserted.

On the anniversary of the military’s February 1, 2021 coup against the elected civilian government, Kyaw Thurein Win watched his village, Shut Pon, burn in the southern Tanintharyi region—through satellite imagery.

“Today my village is witnessing the cruelty of the military. They set the fires and ordered that they not be stopped. This is beyond inhuman and beyond cruel. Watching this happen from afar is unbearable,” he wrote on Facebook.

While the strength and determination of anti-regime resistance remain undeniable, there is a growing realisation—particularly among former combatants—that the war will not be won anytime soon, if at all.

“It is a stalemate. Nobody can win,” said one military defector, adding that calls for total victory by both the regime and the resistance ring hollow.

A young woman who runs a safe house for former child soldiers as young as 13 said she initially joined the People’s Defence Forces formed in 2021. She later concluded that war was not the answer and began sheltering children forced by poverty and displacement to fight the regime.

She criticised the “whatever it takes” mentality and the heavy toll it exacts.

“Civilian suffering is ignored or exploited,” she said while attending a coup anniversary event organised by anti-regime activists in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand. She shared a photograph of a boy nicknamed “Commando”, in uniform and heavily armed. He was 12 at the time.

Sayarma Suzanna, who is fundraising for her school—the Dr Thanbyah Christian Institute in Kayin State—said she and her 97 students spent all of November hiding in nearby forests due to air strikes.

“You have to understand that when students don’t listen during lessons, it is because of trauma,” she said, recalling how one student lost seven family members in air strikes on their village.

Nearby, the manager of I-Walk displayed affordable prosthetic limbs produced by his enterprise. He said there is a waiting list of more than 3,000 people.

Myanmar is now the most heavily landmined country in the world, with the highest casualty rate. It is also the largest producer of illicit opium and a major source of synthetic drugs. Criminal networks and militia-linked online scam centres have trafficked tens of thousands of people from multiple countries, defrauding victims of billions of dollars.

The United Nations says 5.2 million people have been displaced by conflict inside the country and across borders. Aid cuts by wealthy nations have had a crippling effect, leaving some clinics able to dispense only basic medication such as paracetamol.

This year’s coup anniversary coincided with the conclusion of parliamentary and regional elections tightly controlled by the regime across the fragmented territory it governs, including major cities.

The three-phase polls—endorsed by China and Russia but rejected by the UN and most democracies—excluded the National League for Democracy, which won landslide victories in 2015 and 2020. Party leader Aung San Suu Kyi has remained in detention since the coup.

There is speculation that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing may transfer her to house arrest after the Union Solidarity and Development Party forms a nominally civilian government in April. The party is heading towards a managed landslide victory, according to near-final results released last week.

The UN reported at least 170 civilians killed in regime attacks during the month-long election period, though other estimates place the toll much higher. One air strike in Kachin State on January 22 reportedly killed 50 civilians.

Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) indicate more than 90,000 conflict-related deaths since the coup. While the military has borne heavy losses due to forced conscription, civilian deaths are estimated at over 16,000.

“The military has carried out air strikes, indiscriminately or deliberately targeting civilians in their homes, hospitals and schools,” said Nicholas Koumjian, head of the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, citing evidence of crimes against humanity and war crimes.

The mechanism is also examining allegations of abuses by opposition armed groups, over which the parallel National Unity Government has limited control. Former fighters say rogue resistance units have engaged in extortion and kidnappings.

Myanmar remains mired in an existential crisis, marked by collapsing human security and shrinking state sovereignty as rival power centres harden on the ground, according to a recent review by a local policy institute.

Despite continued rhetoric of overthrowing the junta, fragmentation within the opposition remains evident. In major cities, amid worsening economic conditions, public sentiment appears increasingly resigned.

“When protests began in 2021, I told my husband we would defeat the military in three months,” an elderly activist said. “He said it would take five years. Now I fear it will take another five.”