Older Adults Living Longer, Posing Global Challenges

Older men and women are living longer than ever before. Around the world, those reaching old age can now expect to live significantly more years than earlier generations. While these additional years offer new opportunities, they also present major economic, social, and political challenges—especially given the disparities between and within countries, and between men and women.

Global Trends

In 1950, the average life expectancy at age 65 was about 11 years for men and 12 for women. By 2025, these figures are projected to rise to 16 years for men and 19 for women—an increase of over 50%. This trend is expected to continue, with projections for 2100 reaching 21 years for men and 23 for women.

At age 80, a similar trend is seen. Life expectancy in 1950 was roughly 5 years for both men and women. By 2025, this is expected to increase to around 8 years for men and 9 for women. By 2100, men and women at age 80 are projected to live approximately 11 and 12 more years, respectively.

Women consistently outlive men, and the gap in life expectancy at older ages has widened over the past 75 years.

Country Trends

The most substantial longevity gains have occurred in wealthier, more developed nations. In Japan and Italy, men and women aged 65 now live about 20 and 24 more years, respectively—nearly double the 1950 levels. By 2100, these figures are expected to rise to 28 and 32 years.

In contrast, countries like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have seen only modest improvements. Life expectancy at age 65 in these countries is currently about 13 years and is projected to reach just 15 years by 2100.

Even within countries, disparities persist. In the United States, for instance, life expectancy at age 65 varies by state. In 2021, it ranged from 18 years for men and 21 for women in states like Hawaii and Massachusetts, to 15 years for men and 18 for women in states like Mississippi and West Virginia. These differences are largely due to disparities in income, healthcare access, lifestyle, and public policy.

Challenges

Longer lives bring benefits—more time for family, education, recreation, and work. But they also bring significant challenges.

Public health systems must address increased risks of chronic illness, disability, and dementia. At the same time, fertility rates are falling, leading to population ageing and, in many places, population decline.

A key metric—the potential support ratio (people aged 20–64 per person aged 65+)—highlights the issue. In 1950, the global ratio was 10. By 2025, it will be 5; by 2050, just 3. This trend threatens the sustainability of pension systems, prompting countries like France and China to raise retirement ages.

Healthcare systems also face mounting pressure, as the growing population of older adults requires more long-term and costly care services, including for heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and cognitive decline.

Conclusions

Countries must prepare now to manage the complex challenges posed by an ageing population.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials.”