Syria faces uncertain future after regime collapse

Rosemary DiCarlo (center), Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, briefs the Security Council. UN Photo-Manuel Elías

By Vibhu Mishra

17 December 2024 - At a historic crossroads, just 11 days after the collapse of the Assad regime, Syria faces a fragile mix of hope and chaos, plagued by a volatile security situation and a worsening humanitarian crisis, top UN officials told the Security Council on Tuesday.

Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher briefed ambassadors via video link from Damascus, where they are engaging with key stakeholders to ramp up UN support and pushing for an inclusive and credible political transition.

They emphasized that while the current moment offers a rare opportunity for peace and rebuilding, it is fraught with risks.

A pivotal moment

Mr. Pedersen described the dramatic end of the 54-year-long Assad regime as a pivotal moment for the country and its people. He stressed the need for careful management by both Syrians and the international community.

“There is a profound and shared sentiment among Syrians that this new situation belongs to them, that it is their moment to realize their legitimate aspirations,” he said.

“But many are apprehensive about the future. The challenges ahead are enormous.”

He told Council members that regime’s fall followed swift advances by the Military Operations Command, an armed coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). A caretaker authority, composed of officials from the self-styled Syrian Salvation Government, has assumed power.

Regional power struggles

Mr. Pedersen also highlighted continued tensions across Syria, where armed opposition groups and regional power struggles threaten destabilization.

Northeast Syria, including some neighbourhoods of Aleppo, remains under the control of the United States-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A five-day ceasefire between the US and Türkiye along the Euphrates River has expired, with reports of military build-ups and rising tensions.

“Such an escalation could be catastrophic,” he warned.

Situation in the Golan

Adding to the volatility, in southwestern Syria, the UN peacekeeping mission, UNDOF, has observed Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in multiple locations in the area of separation.

Israeli troops have advanced several kilometres into Syrian territory according to multiple media reports and there have been hundreds of airstrikes on military facilities, equipment and supplies across Syria, which Israel described as a defensive measure.

“Such attacks place a battered civilian population at further risk and undermine the prospects of an orderly political transition,” Mr. Pedersen said, citing also reports of Israeli plans to expand settlements in the Golan. 

“Israel must cease all settlement activity in the occupied Syrian Golan, which are illegal. Attacks on territorial integrity must stop,” he stressed.

Preserve Syria’s institutions

Mr. Pedersen outlined Syria’s three main challenges: ongoing hostilities, immense humanitarian and economic needs, and the necessity for a credible political transition.  

He underscored the importance of preserving state institutions, establishing an inclusive governance process, and ensuring free and fair elections – all critical components of Security Council resolution 2254 (2015).

“Stability will not last long if not built on credible and inclusive foundations. The time is to build those foundations now,” he said.

Staggering humanitarian needs

UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher echoed these concerns, underscoring the staggering humanitarian toll of the long-running conflict, compounded by the recent upheaval.

Even before the recent dramatic events, Syria was one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with over 17 million people – or 70 per cent of the population – in need of assistance.

“The recent escalation has only added to these needs,” Fletcher reported. More than one million Syrians were displaced in less than two weeks, while hundreds of civilians, including at least 80 children, have been killed or injured.

Essential services, already decimated by years of conflict, ground to a halt, and schools, health facilities and aid operations are degraded. There are also reports of critical shortages of food, fuel and supplies due to disrupted trade routes and border closures.

To alleviate the situation, he has been pushing for a massive scale-up of aid efforts, he said, adding that the caretaker authorities in Damascus have committed to facilitating humanitarian deliveries across conflict lines and borders.

Funds needed

In addition, resources are desperately needed to fund relief operations. The 2024 humanitarian appeal for Syria is one of the most poorly supported, having received less than a third of its requirements with only two weeks left.

The UN for its part has allocated $32 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to support critical, lifesaving humanitarian work.

Mr. Fletcher urged the international community to follow suit.

“Now is the time to invest in the Syrian people, to support flexible funds so that we can respond to changing needs…now is also the time for Member States to work on development support to rebuilding Syria, reducing dependence on humanitarian support; and maintaining essential services.” - UN News

UN urges parties to re-engage on Iran nuclear deal

17 December 2024 - The head of UN political affairs called on Tuesday for urgent re-engagement to restore an international agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. 

Rosemary DiCarlo briefed the Security Council on developments surrounding the 2015 accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and implementation of Council resolution 2231 (2015) which endorsed it.

The JCPOA set out rigorous mechanisms for monitoring restrictions placed on Iran’s nuclear programme, while paving the way for lifting sanctions against the country.

It was signed between Iran and the Council’s five permanent members – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – plus Germany and the European Union. The US withdrew in May 2018 under the Trump administration.

End the impasse

Ms. DiCarlo noted that 10 months remain until the “Termination Day” for Resolution 2231 (2015) and the impasse on restoring the JCPOA persists, amid a deteriorating regional context. 

“Against this backdrop, the need for a comprehensive, long-term-solution that would restore the objectives of the Plan has never been greater,” she told ambassadors.

She said the US has not returned to the JCPOA, nor has it lifted or waived unilateral sanctions re-imposed in the wake of its withdrawal, and waivers regarding the trade in oil with Iran have not been extended.

For its part, Iran “has not reversed any of the steps it has taken since May 2019 to move away from its nuclear-related commitments,” she added.

Verification and monitoring ‘seriously affected’

Ms. DiCarlo quoted the UN-backed nuclear energy watchdog, the IAEA, which recently reported that its verification and monitoring activities have been “seriously affected by the cessation of Iran’s implementation of its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA”.

The IAEA also noted that it has lost continuity of knowledge on many aspects of Iran's nuclear programme.

“In plain words, the Agency is unable to assure the international community of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” she said.

Enriched uranium stockpile ‘concerning’

Furthermore, the IAEA remains unable to verify the stockpile of enriched uranium in the country, a situation that has persisted since February 2021.

“However, it estimated that Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile is approximately 32 times the amount allowable under the JCPOA,” she said.

“This includes increased quantities of uranium enriched to 20 per cent and 60 per cent. Such a stockpile of enriched uranium and level of enrichment remain very concerning.” 

The IAEA has also issued two ad hoc reports that describe Iran’s intention to commence previously declared enrichment activities exceeding the JCPOA limits as well as information on activities to increase production of uranium enriched to 60 per cent.

‘Rise to the challenge’

Meanwhile, the UN Secretary-General has received letters from some JCPOA participants. 

France, Germany and the UK exchanged differing views with Iran and Russia on the root causes of the impasse, their respective steps taken as a result, and their views on the way forward. 

“The Secretary-General is concerned about the ongoing and persistent disagreements among these Member States at such a critical juncture,” she said.

“Despite these differences, these Member States have expressed their commitments to making constructive efforts to resolve them. I urge all JCPOA participants and the United States to rise to this challenge.”

In concluding her remarks, Ms. DiCarlo echoed the Secretary-General’s call for these nations to “prioritize multilateralism and diplomacy” – the principles that made the JCPOA possible.

‘Time is of the essence’

“The parties must summon the political will and urgently re-engage in negotiations. Time is of the essence,” she warned.

“While the onus is on the JCPOA participants and the US, their success or failure matters to all of us. The region cannot afford further instability.”

She underlined the need for genuine commitment to dialogue and diplomacy, saying “that is the way to restore confidence in the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme, realize the aspirations of the Iranian people, and contribute to stability in the region and beyond.” - UN News