WB recommends phased tariff reform to boost Bangladesh trade

The recommendations were made in a new World Bank study titled “Bangladesh Trade Policy at a Crossroads: Evidence for the National Tariff Policy, LDC Graduation, and the Next Generation of Trade Agreements,” presented by Dr Nora Dihel, Senior Economist for Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment at the World Bank, at a programme here today.   

The Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), in collaboration with the World Bank Group organized the programme at its Banani office in the city.

The study recommends that Bangladesh gradually should reduce remaining regulatory and supplementary duties, known as para-tariffs, and eventually brings its tariff structure closer to the levels of regional competitors, including India, China and Vietnam.

According to the study, Bangladesh’s trade-weighted average Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff stands at 7.0 percent across 5,666 tariff lines based on FY2026 data. However, after para-tariffs are taken into account, average nominal protection rises to 15.4 percent.

The gap is particularly significant in sectors such as footwear, hides and skins, stone and glass, and transportation equipment. In the footwear sector, for instance, nominal protection reaches 70.4 percent, compared with an MFN tariff of 25 percent.

The World Bank recommended that tariff reform be accompanied by stronger domestic revenue mobilisation to manage the fiscal implications of lower import duties.

It also called for the removal of non-tariff barriers, liberalisation of services trade and adjustment support for workers and sectors affected by trade liberalisation.

Using its Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool (TRIST), the World Bank estimated that a 10 percent reduction in customs duties alone would reduce import tax revenue by around $189 million.

If the same reduction were combined with full removal of para-tariffs, the fiscal cost would rise to around $1.4 billion, it said.

The study estimated that complete elimination of both customs duties and para-tariffs would cost about $3.7 billion, equivalent to 40.8 percent of import tax revenue or 0.83 percentage points of GDP.

The World Bank therefore stressed the need for a carefully sequenced reform programme rather than an abrupt reduction in border protection.

The study also recommended that Bangladesh pursue deeper trade agreements to prepare for its graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category.

Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from LDC status on November 24, 2026, although the government has requested a deferral of at least three years.

The study found that unilateral trade reforms, particularly deeper cuts in input tariffs and removal of para-tariffs on intermediate goods, could increase real GDP by up to 0.52 percent.

A deeper multi-partner free trade agreement strategy, benchmarked against Vietnam’s trade agreements, could raise real GDP by 0.73 percent, or around $3.2 billion, with about two-thirds of the gains coming from agreements with RCEP and ASEAN members.

The World Bank recommended that Bangladesh combine domestic tariff reforms with an active strategy to secure preferential market access and expand its participation in regional and global trade arrangements after LDC graduation.

The study was presented at a high-level discussion organised by PRI, bringing together policymakers, economists, researchers and business leaders to discuss Bangladesh’s National Tariff Policy, LDC graduation and the next generation of trade agreements.

PRI Chairman Dr. Zaidi Sattar chaired the programme, while Md. Fazlul Hoque, Administrator of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), attended as the chief guest.

The programme also brought together distinguished economists, researchers and business leaders.
 
PRI Distinguished Fellow Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur delivered the closing remarks, reports BSS.