Bangladesh’s Export to ASEAN Remains Starkly Insignificant

​In the quiet corridors of power in Dhaka, the air is thick with a sense of urgency that transcends routine governance. As the global geopolitical landscape shifts under the weight of an escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, the new BNP-led government of Bangladesh finds itself at a critical crossroads. The traditional reliance on the Middle East for energy—a cornerstone of the nation’s economy for decades—is suddenly appearing more like a strategic vulnerability than a stable foundation. In response, a major diplomatic and economic shift is underway: the "ASEAN Pivot."

​The primary catalyst for this shift is a cold, geographical reality. State Minister for Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources, Anindya Islam Amit, has been vocal about the government's scramble to secure alternative fuel sources. Currently, the "lion’s share" of Bangladesh’s fuel imports originates from the Middle East. Giants like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman are the lifelines of the Bangladeshi power grid, supplying the crude oil necessary to keep the wheels of industry turning.

​However, almost all this oil must pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. This maritime chokepoint, where a fifth of the world’s crude oil flows daily, has become a high-risk zone. Officials at the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) have warned that if the conflict in the Middle East disrupts this waterway, the situation for Bangladesh would become critical. The fear is not just a rise in prices, but a total supply chain collapse if regional refineries fail to secure the crude they need to process.

​"We have diversified our energy resources in view of the war in the Middle East," Minister Amit stated, signaling that the government is no longer content to wait for a crisis to strike. The search for new partners has led directly to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where refined fuel and untapped crude reserves offer a potential hedge against Middle Eastern instability.

​One of the most immediate results of this diplomatic push is a renewed engagement with Brunei Darussalam. For seven years, energy talks between Dhaka and Bandar Seri Begawan had largely stalled, despite high-level visits by the then-Prime Minister of Bangladesh in 2019 and Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah’s reciprocal visit to Dhaka in 2022. Several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) were signed during those years, but they remained little more than ink on paper.

​The current global energy crisis has finally provided the necessary pressure to turn these documents into action. Sources indicate that Brunei is now expected to export 120,000 tonnes of oil to Bangladesh. While this amount is only a fraction of total national demand, it represents a symbolic and strategic victory—the opening of a non-Hormuz energy corridor. Simultaneously, Bangladesh has urged other ASEAN powerhouses, including Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, to increase their exports of petroleum products, hoping to ease the domestic energy crunch through a more diversified supplier base.

​While the energy sector is driving the immediate diplomatic agenda, policy-makers are grappling with a much larger, structural problem: the massive trade imbalance with Southeast Asia. For years, Bangladesh has focused its export energies on traditional Western markets—the USA, EU, UK, Canada—and developed Asian markets like Japan and Australia. This focus has yielded results; in the 2024-2025 fiscal year (July–June), total exports reached approximately $48.28 billion, reflecting an 8.58% year-on-year growth driven largely by the resilient Readymade Garments (RMG) sector.

​Yet, within this success story lies a glaring gap. Despite various government initiatives, exports to ASEAN countries remain insignificant, hovering between a mere 1.00% to 2.00% of total exports. In monetary terms, this stands at less than $1 billion. In stark contrast, ASEAN countries are major exporters to Bangladesh. During the 2023-24 fiscal year, the bloc sent goods worth $10.53 billion to Bangladeshi shores, accounting for 16.7% of the country’s total imports.

​The Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) provided a sobering breakdown of exports to specific ASEAN neighbors for the 2024-25 period:

​Singapore: $110.00 million, Philippines: $86.00 million, Thailand: $61.84 millionn Idonesia: $56.71 million, Myanmar: $34.83 million, Brunei: $1.27 million

​These figures represent a missed opportunity. As a top official from the EPB noted, Bangladesh must explore new markets and products to reduce its over-dependence on traditional Western buyers, especially as global trade dynamics become more fragmented.

​Business leaders argue that the "ASEAN gap" cannot be closed by diplomatic pleasantries alone. Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), President of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) and Managing Director of the Evince Group, believes that a surge in exports is only possible if Bangladesh signs Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the region. As a former president of the BGMEA, Chowdhury understands the competitive nature of the garment trade and insists that tariff and non-tariff barriers are currently choking potential growth.

​Thailand appears to be the most willing partner in this regard. The newly appointed Thai Ambassador, Thithiporn Chirasawadi, recently met with Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus at the state guest house Jamuna to express Bangkok’s strong interest in negotiating a bilateral FTA. Such a move would not only expand trade but also encourage much-needed Thai investment in Bangladeshi infrastructure and industry.

​Connectivity is the other half of the puzzle. The two nations are working to launch a direct shipping route between Thailand’s Ranong Port and Chittagong Port. Scheduled to begin in March, following critical talks in February, this maritime link would bypass long, expensive transit routes, significantly reducing logistical costs and making Bangladeshi goods more competitive in Thai markets.

​The shift toward ASEAN also offers a chance for Bangladesh to diversify what it sells. Alamgir Jalil, former president of the Bangladesh-Malaysia Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BMCCI), pointed to a surprising success story: semiconductors. Companies like ULKASEMI, led by CEO Mohammed Enayetur Rahman, are already bridging the gap between Bangladesh, the US, and Malaysia. Jalil argues that Bangladesh should focus on grooming "human sources" specifically tailored for the Malaysian labor market, shifting from unskilled to semi-skilled and high-tech labor exports.

​This sentiment was echoed during a recent meeting between ASEAN diplomats and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Bangladesh. ICCB President Mahbubur Rahman and Vice Presidents A K Azad and Naser Ezaz Bijoy hosted representatives from the ASEAN Dhaka Committee (comprising Brunei, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). Rahman was blunt in his assessment, citing poor export performance and urging the diplomats to help reduce the trade gap. He highlighted Bangladesh's growth in pharmaceuticals, ICT, and solar energy as prime areas for Southeast Asian investment.

​The Vietnamese Ambassador and Chair of the ASEAN Dhaka Committee, Nguyen Manh Cuong, responded with optimism, noting that ASEAN perceives Bangladesh as a land of vast opportunity. However, he emphasized that the onus is on Dhaka to diversify its product basket and proactively arrange trade promotions within ASEAN capitals.

​For the interim government, the ultimate goal is not just trade, but formal integration. Professor Muhammad Yunus has made it a priority to secure Bangladesh’s membership as a Sectoral Dialogue Partner of ASEAN. This status would give Bangladesh a seat at the table in one of the world’s most dynamic economic blocs, currently home to over 600 million people and a rapidly growing middle class.

​As Indonesia expresses interest in solar power and Thailand looks toward maritime connectivity, the pieces of a new regional strategy are falling into place. The "ASEAN Pivot" is no longer a choice; it is a survival strategy. By diversifying its energy sources away from the volatile Middle East and breaking into the high-growth markets of its eastern neighbors, Bangladesh is attempting to rewrite its economic future in an increasingly uncertain world.