UN: Cooling La Nina to be 'Short-lived'

The cooling La Nina weather phenomenon, which emerged late last year, is weak and expected to be brief, according to the UN. The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated on Thursday that this weak La Nina event, which began in December 2024, is unlikely to have a long-lasting impact on global temperatures.

The WMO forecast a 60% chance that conditions will shift to neutral between this month and May, with the probability increasing to 70% from April to June.

Last year, the WMO had hoped La Nina could help mitigate rising temperatures, following the extreme heat driven by El Nino, which had gripped the planet for a year from June 2023. However, with 2024 already recorded as the hottest year ever, La Nina's cooling effect is expected to be minimal.

Despite the presence of weak La Nina conditions, WMO confirmed that January 2025 was the warmest January on record. Additionally, its global seasonal climate update predicted that above-normal sea surface temperatures would persist across all major oceans, except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific. The forecast also highlighted above-average temperatures across most land areas worldwide.

La Nina, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, cools ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and influences winds, rains, and atmospheric pressure. It typically produces opposite climate effects to El Nino, which heats up ocean surfaces, leading to droughts in some areas and heavy rains in others.

The WMO also noted that the likelihood of another El Nino event between now and June is “negligible.”

While both La Nina and El Nino are natural events, the WMO emphasized that they are occurring within the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is intensifying global temperatures and extreme weather events.

WMO chief Celeste Saulo highlighted that seasonal forecasts of La Nina and El Nino are crucial tools for early warnings, helping to inform decision-making and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather. She stressed that these forecasts contribute to significant economic savings, particularly in sectors like agriculture, energy, and transport, and have saved thousands of lives by enabling disaster preparedness.