1.5°C Climate Limit Likely to Be Breached by 2029: WMO

Glaciers retreating due to climate change in Chile, as rising global temperatures continue to accelerate ice melt worldwide. Photo: World Bank/Curt Carnemark

The year 2024 marked the hottest on record — but this may only be the beginning. According to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 86 per cent chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at least once between now and 2029.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update projects that, over the next five years, global temperatures will range between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the baseline average from 1850–1900. The WMO notes that 2024’s average temperature was already 1.34°C to 1.41°C above pre-industrial levels, placing the planet dangerously close to the critical 1.5°C threshold set under the Paris Agreement.

Though the 1.5°C target refers to long-term (20-year) averages, a breach in any single year would serve as a stark warning. There’s a 70 per cent likelihood that the five-year average itself will surpass this threshold, and a one per cent chance that global warming could temporarily hit or exceed 2°C in a given year.

“These are not just statistics — they are alarm bells,” warned WMO Secretary-General Prof. Celeste Saulo. “This data reinforces the urgency for stronger climate action to limit long-term warming.”

Extreme impacts expected

In addition to global heat records, the report highlights stark regional consequences. The Arctic is warming at more than three and a half times the global average, with winter temperatures (November to March) expected to rise 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average over the next five years. Sea ice will continue to retreat in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas, contributing to global sea-level rise and altered weather systems.

Precipitation patterns will also shift: wetter-than-average conditions are predicted in the African Sahel, northern Europe, and South Asia, while regions like the Amazon face prolonged drought, deepening environmental stress and biodiversity loss.

As the planet edges closer to irreversible tipping points, the WMO is calling for urgent and coordinated global action to meet climate targets and safeguard the planet’s future.