UN Warns New Climate Pledges Barely Slow Warming Trend

The electricity generated by wind farms reduces the reliance on coal-powered energy.

Available new climate pledges by governments have only slightly lowered the projected rise in global temperatures over this century, leaving the world on course for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.

The warning comes in the latest Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), issued on Tuesday ahead of the COP30 climate conference, which opens in Belém, Brazil, next week.

Nearly a decade has passed since world leaders adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and preferably to 1.5°C.

Climate action plans

Countries outline their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming through action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted every five years.

The third round covers the period through 2035 – and only 60 parties, less than one-third, had submitted new NDCs by the end of September.

The report reveals that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of NDCs, now range between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, compared with 2.6°C to 2.8°C in last year’s edition. Projections based on current policies stand at 2.8°C, down slightly from 3.1°C last year.

Missing the goal

UNEP noted, however, that methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, while the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will offset another 0.1°C — “meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle.”

As a result, nations remain far from meeting the goals of the landmark treaty. To align with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, annual emissions would need to be reduced by 35 per cent and 55 per cent respectively by 2035, compared with 2019 levels.

The report finds that the multi-decadal average global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, which will be difficult to reverse.

“While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

“But it is still possible — just. Proven solutions already exist,” she added.

‘We know what needs to be done’

The report calls for faster and deeper emission reductions to keep the goal of returning to 1.5°C by the year 2100 within reach.

“Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces the escalation of damages, losses, and health impacts that are harming all nations — while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest — and reduces the risks of climate tipping points and other irreversible impacts,” UNEP said.

The agency stressed that the international community can still accelerate climate action — if it chooses.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, temperature projections have fallen from 3°C–3.5°C to the current 2.5°C range. Moreover, technologies for large-scale emission cuts already exist, such as wind and solar energy.

“From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done,” Ms Andersen said.

“Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action — action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security, and resilience.”