Acute food insecurity reaches new highs, says report

Food as medicine

Geneva, 6 May (Kanaga Raja) – The levels of hunger remain alarmingly high globally, with close to 193 million people acutely food insecure and in need of urgent assistance across 53 countries or territories in 2021, an increase of nearly 40 million people compared to the previous high reached in 2020.

This is one of the key findings of the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2022 by the Global Network Against Food Crises – an international alliance of the United Nations including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), the European Union, governmental and non- governmental agencies working to tackle food crises.

“The outlook for global acute food insecurity in 2022 is expected to deteriorate further relative to 2021,” said the report.

In particular, the report said the unfolding war in Ukraine is likely to exacerbate its already severe 2022 acute food insecurity forecasts, given that the repercussions of the war on global food, energy and fertilizer prices and supplies have not yet been factored into most country-level projection analyses.

“The tragic link between conflict and food insecurity is once again evident and alarming,” said Qu Dongyu, FAO Director-General.

“While the international community has courageously stepped up to the calls for urgent famine prevention and mitigation action, resource mobilization to efficiently tackle the root causes of food crises due to, among others, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, global hotspots and the war in Ukraine, still struggles to match the growing needs,” he added.

“The results of this year’s Global Report further demonstrate the need to collectively address acute food insecurity at the global level across humanitarian, development and peace contexts,” said the FAO chief.

“Acute hunger is soaring to unprecedented levels and the global situation just keeps on getting worse. Conflict, the climate crisis, COVID-19 and surging food and fuel costs have created a perfect storm – and now we’ve got the war in Ukraine piling catastrophe on top of catastrophe,” said David Beasley, WFP Executive Director.

“Millions of people in dozens of countries are being driven to the edge of starvation. We urgently need emergency funding to pull them back from the brink and turn this global crisis around before it’s too late,” he added.

OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS

According to the report, in 2021, around 193 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in 53 countries/territories – an increase of nearly 40 million people since 2020 and the highest number in the report’s six-year existence.

The dramatic increase is primarily driven by prolonged or intensifying conflict, pre-existing and COVID-19-related economic shocks, weather extremes or a combination of these factors, it said.

“It is also partly attributable to increased population coverage in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as well as the use of revised population figures, such as in Afghanistan.”

Major increases were reported in eight countries, accounting for 35 million additional people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above): Afghanistan, with around 10 million additional people in these phases; Ethiopia (8 million); the Democratic Republic of the Congo (5 million); Nigeria (4 million); Pakistan and Yemen (3 million each); and Angola and Somalia (1 million each).

Between 2020 and 2021, the percentage of the analysed population in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent also increased marginally from 20.8 to 21.3 percent.

This increase occurred despite the fact that the analysed population rose by 22 percent between 2020 and 2021, the report said.

Over 570,000 people in localized areas of four countries were in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in 2021 and required urgent action to prevent widespread starvation, death and total collapse of livelihoods, said the report.

The highest numbers were in Ethiopia (401,000 people in the Tigray region in July-September 2021) followed by South Sudan (108,000 in April-July 2021); Yemen (47,000 in January-June 2021) and Madagascar (14,000 in the Grand Sud in April-September 2021).

Around 39 million people were in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) in 36 countries/territories in 2021, the report said.

It said that Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen, Ethiopia, the Sudan and South Sudan, had more than 2 million people each in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4), while Haiti and Pakistan had around one million people each.

These countries accounted for 82 percent of the total global number in this phase, said the report, adding that within this, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen, Ethiopia and Afghanistan accounted for nearly 63 percent of the global number of people in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4).

In Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Haiti, South Sudan and Yemen, over 10 percent of the population analysed was in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), reaching 21 percent in Afghanistan and 20 percent in South Sudan.

“Although there are no estimates for the populations in this phase in the Syrian Arab Republic, 2.5 million people, or 12 percent of the population analysed, were severely food insecure according to WFP.”

An additional 236 million people were in Stressed (IPC/CH Phase 2) in 41 countries with IPC/CH analyses in 2021, requiring action for disaster risk reduction and protecting livelihoods, said the report.

Five countries account for over half (52 percent) of the number of people in this phase, in order of magnitude: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Sudan and Afghanistan, it added.

The report said that in another set of countries – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guatemala, Madagascar and Mozambique – at least 40 percent of the analysed population were in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), peaking at 46 percent in Mozambique.

At 193 million in 2021, the number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent was 24 percent higher than in 2020, although the number of food-crisis countries/territories decreased from 55 to 53 due to limited data availability in 2021, said the report.

This year-on-year increase indicates worsening acute food insecurity, especially in major food-crisis countries such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Yemen, it added.

“The number of people in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) reached the highest point in the six years of the GRFC’s existence in 2021, with over 82 percent of them in eight countries: Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen, Ethiopia, the Sudan, South Sudan, Haiti and Pakistan.”

Relative to 2020, the most significant increases in 2021 were in Afghanistan, where the population in this phase roughly doubled to over 8.7 million by the end of 2021, in part due to the use of base population estimates that were higher than in previous years, said the report.

Between late 2020 and the 2021 peak, Ethiopia experienced a 205 percent increase to around 4.3 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

According to the report, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) was the second largest globally, increasing by over 1 million from 2020 to 6.7 million people in 2021, in part due to increased IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) geographical coverage.

Yemen had the third largest population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in 2021, with the number of people in this phase rising by 39 percent from 3.6 million in 2020 to 5.06 million in 2021.

The number of people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Somalia increased by 60 percent to over 640,000.

In 2021, out of the 193 million people in the three highest phases of acute food insecurity, nearly 70 percent were in Crisis (IPC/CH Phase 3).

The report said in five countries – the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria (21 states and Federal Capital Territory), Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Yemen – more than 10 million people were in this phase.

The report said countries characterised by food crises receive 84 percent of all humanitarian assistance worldwide (all sectors considered), while absorbing 33 percent of global development assistance.

In 2020, the humanitarian assistance allocated to food sectors in 55 food-crisis countries/territories was the lowest recorded in the six-year existence of the GRFC, even though the number of acutely food-insecure people was the highest on record, it added.

Humanitarian assistance to food sectors in food-crisis countries/territories has been decreasing since 2017. In 2020, it stood at USD 8.1 billion, 25 percent lower than in 2017, the report emphasized.

The two biggest decreases in disbursements were reported in Yemen (a 50 percent decrease of USD 1 billion since 2019) and the Syrian Arab Republic (a 16 percent decrease of USD 147 million).

According to the Global Network Against Food Crises’ Financing Flows and Food Crises report, on average from 2016-2020, food sectors in food-crisis countries/territories received 34 percent of global humanitarian assistance spending.

“Humanitarian assistance for food security was consistently the most funded food sector, while humanitarian assistance for agriculture and livelihoods was the least funded, and decreased by more than 50 percent since 2016.”

THE DRIVERS OF FOOD CRISES

The report said in 2021, conflict/insecurity, weather extremes and economic shocks, including COVID-19-related economic effects, again constituted the three primary drivers of food crises – but these drivers are often interlinked and mutually reinforcing, rendering it difficult to specify a singular trigger of each food crisis.

In 2021, conflict/insecurity was a primary driver of acute food insecurity in 24 countries/territories covered in the GRFC.

The report said that these countries accounted for around 139 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent, an increase of 40 million people since 2020.

It was the key driver in three of the four countries with populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) – Ethiopia, South Sudan and Yemen – and in seven of the ten largest food crises.

The report said around 75 percent of the population in Emergency or worse (IPC/CH Phase 4 or above) in 2021 were in 13 countries (with IPC/CH analyses) in which conflict/insecurity was the main driver.

Between 2018 and 2021, the number of people facing Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in countries/territories where conflict/insecurity was the principal driver increased by a staggering 88 percent – from around 74 million to 139 million, said the report.

The report said that all countries/territories with major food crises mainly driven by conflict were also affected by either weather extremes, economic shocks or both.

“These two drivers often fuel tensions and conflicts by increasing competition around limited natural resources and income opportunities.”

The report said in 2021, 21 countries/territories had economic shocks as a primary driver of acute food insecurity.

In these 21 countries/territories, around 30.2 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent.

“This figure includes two of the world’s largest food crises in terms of absolute numbers – Pakistan and Haiti.”

The number of countries affected by economic shocks more than doubled between 2019 and 2020 from eight to 17 due to the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on livelihoods, incomes and food prices – contributing to around 40.5 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in 2020, said the report.

It said in 2021, despite a decrease in the number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) primarily affected by economic shocks from 2020, they were considered either a primary, secondary or tertiary driver in 48 out of the 53 countries/territories covered in the report.

“This reflects in part a sharp rise in global food prices in 2021 as a result of a combination of factors, notably an uneven global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread supply chain disruptions.”

In Central and Southern Africa, food access was still severely constrained by widespread informal job losses due to COVID-19 restrictions, particularly for households reliant on remittances from South Africa, said the report.

Currency depreciation (Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe), trade disruptions due to insecurity (the Central African Republic), or high imported grain prices (Lesotho and Namibia) contributed to rising food prices across the region.

“Across East Africa, although economic shocks were not the primary driver of major food crises, they were still considered a major driver in Ethiopia, the Sudan and South Sudan, as these countries continued to grapple with macroeconomic crises characterized by currency depreciation, high food prices and lack of work opportunities.”

The report said that countries struggled to recover from the socioeconomic effects of COVID-19 restrictions, which dampened casual labour opportunities and contributed to food price volatility by disrupting trade and cross-border movement of goods and people.

The report said in most Sahelian and coastal countries of West Africa, high food prices were driven by insecurity- related disruptions to agricultural activities and markets, higher transport costs linked to COVID-19 containment measures, and rising international commodity prices.

Food price increases were especially notable in Benin, the Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria.

In Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador in Latin America, access to food was limited by rising staple food prices and atypically low labour demand, resulting from the ongoing economic impacts of the COVID-19 containment measures, said the report.

“In food import-dependent Haiti, currency depreciation pushed up domestic food prices, exacerbating an ongoing decline in household purchasing power.”

In Eurasia, economic shocks were considered the primary driver of acute food insecurity in Pakistan’s Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkwa and Sindh provinces, where high food and fuel prices weakened purchasing power.

“However, they were major contributors in Yemen, Afghanistan and the Syrian Arab Republic, where economic conditions continued to worsen in 2021, with extremely high unemployment levels and increasing food prices.”

The report said in 2021, weather extremes were the main drivers of acute food insecurity in eight African countries, including Madagascar, where nearly 14,000 people were in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in April-September 2021 due to the effects of severe drought.

The eight countries accounted for 23.5 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above), it added.

The report said weather extremes were the primary, secondary or tertiary driver of acute food insecurity in 39 of the 53 countries/territories.

“Increasingly frequent and severe weather shocks have contributed to worsening acute food insecurity, with 2021 bringing particularly detrimental weather events to key crises in East, Central and Southern Africa, and Eurasia.”

The report said although the number of countries with weather extremes as the primary driver declined from 15 to eight between 2020 and 2021, the number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in these countries increased by 50 percent during the same period.

FORECAST FOR 2022

The report said that in 2022, between 179 and 181.1 million people in 41 out of the 53 countries/territories were projected to be in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above), in addition to Cabo Verde.

During 2022, around 329,000 people will likely face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia (81,000 people), South Sudan (87,000 people) and Yemen (161,000 people).

No forecast was available at the time of publication for 12 of the 53 countries/territories with a 2021 estimate, it added.

In 2022, the impact of protracted conflict and related displacement in affected countries will maintain exceptionally high levels of acute food insecurity, said the report.

“In these countries and elsewhere, macroeconomic shocks – characterized by escalating food and fuel costs, lack of work and declining incomes – often in tandem with intense and frequent weather shocks, will intensify and prolong acute food insecurity conditions.”

When comparing 2021 figures for the 41 countries that also had 2022 projections available as of April, there were already an additional 5 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above).

In addition, the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine is expected to have severe consequences for food security outcomes, following the displacement of millions of Ukrainians and widespread destruction of infrastructure and livelihoods, said the report.

“Severe repercussions are also expected at the regional and global level, as many food crisis countries depend on imports for staple food supplies and fertilisers, notably from Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Most of the forecasts in this report do not account for the potential impact of the war,” it explained.

For most of the world’s major food crises, notably in Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, acute food insecurity levels in the first months of 2022 were expected to persist at similar levels to 2021 or increase.

The report said that some countries face further severe deterioration, primarily due to conflict, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel, and drought in the Horn of Africa.

Moreover, said the report, the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will likely be slowed, as the war in Ukraine is expected to trigger a global economic slowdown in 2022-2023.

UKRAINE WAR A MAJOR CONCERN

The report pointed out that for the vast majority of the acute food insecurity forecasts that it has presented, the trade and price risks associated with the war in Ukraine may necessitate revisions of the assumptions that were made prior to the escalation of the war.

“Before the escalation, global wheat production was expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year. However, the war has created major uncertainties regarding the production and export capacities of agricultural products from Ukraine due to widespread infrastructure damage and destruction, and from the Russian Federation due to the economic impact of the war,” it said.

In 2021, the two countries accounted for major shares of global exports of wheat (33 percent), barley (27 percent), maize (17 percent), sunflower seeds (24 percent) and sunflower oil (73 percent).

The Russian Federation also stood as the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilisers, the second leading supplier of potassium fertilisers and the third largest exporter of phosphorous fertilisers.

An estimated 16 million tonnes of maize and 13.5 million tonnes of wheat were expected to be exportable in the two countries as of the end of February 2022, amounting to 43 percent of Ukraine’s and 23 percent of the Russian Federation’s expected 2021/22 exports, said the report.

“Although early production prospects for winter crops to be harvested in 2022 were favourable in Ukraine, the war is preventing many farmers from tending to their fields and harvesting and marketing their crops. Disruptions to essential public services are also expected to negatively affect agricultural activities.”

Current reports indicate that 20-30 percent of areas sown to winter crops will remain unharvested during the 2022/ 23 season, with yields also likely to be adversely affected, said the report.

Some 95 percent of Ukrainian grain exports transit through Odessa, as well as through Mariupol and Kherson, both of which have been severely damaged. Additionally, all Black Sea harbours are blocked and infrastructure damage in Ukraine has hampered logistics and export capacity, said the report.

The report said many food-crisis countries, including several Middle Eastern, northern and sub-Saharan African, as well as South Asian countries, are reliant on wheat imports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

In 2020, 38 countries/territories affected by food crises received 34 percent of the total Ukrainian exports of wheat and maize products, and food-crisis countries also accounted for 73 percent of Russian exports of wheat.

Among these, 27 countries/territories were affected by major food crises, and received around 13.4 million tonnes of the total exports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat and maize products that year.

The largest of these importers included Yemen, the Sudan, Nigeria and Ethiopia, which are consistently among the world’s ten largest food-crisis countries.

“In East Africa alone, where wheat and wheat products account for one-third of average cereal consumption, 90 percent of all wheat imports come from the two countries.”

In 2021, 36 out of the 53 food-crisis countries/territories depended on Ukrainian and Russian exports for more than 10 percent of their total wheat imports, including 21 countries with major food crises, said the report.

In terms of food supply, wheat and its products represented on average 408 kcals per capita per day in 2019 across food-crisis countries. Its contribution was above this level in 15 countries, including in four affected by major food crises – Afghanistan (1,397 kcal/capita/day), the Syrian Arab Republic (1,092), Yemen (925), Pakistan (874), and the Sudan (535) – and relatively dependent on imports.

The Sudan and Yemen, for instance, depended on wheat imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation to meet 35-45 percent of their consumption needs in 2021, said the report.

In the event of an extended disruption to food imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, price increases are expected in food-crisis countries/territories, it cautioned.

In March 2022, the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 170.1 points, up 24.9 points (17.1 percent) from February, marking its highest level on record since 1990.

The report also said disruptions to natural gas and fertiliser markets will have a negative impact on production at the global level, especially at the beginning of a new planting season for many parts of the world.

“Limited availability or shortages of fertilisers are likely to reduce crop yields and result in poor local harvests, particularly in developing countries.”

It said food-crisis countries as geographically diverse as Honduras, Cameroon, Guatemala, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Mozambique and Kenya depend on the Russian Federation and Ukraine for 10-50 percent of their fertiliser imports.

“Reduced access to fertilisers will likely significantly reduce crop production, especially in arid areas, such as the Sahel, where poor soil quality necessitates the use of chemical fertilisers to facilitate food production,” it added.

The report said the repercussions of price hikes will also be felt among humanitarian partners responding to food crises.

For example, rising wheat prices and a lack of pulses from Ukraine are projected to increase the food procurement costs for WFP by approximately USD 23 million per month, it added.

- Third World Network