Four Years On, WHO Finds No Clear COVID-19 Origin

The origin of COVID-19 remains a mystery, hampered by secrecy, stalled research and global inaction.

More than four years after COVID-19 upended the world, the question of how it began remains unanswered. Did SARS-CoV-2 originate naturally from animals to humans, or did it accidentally escape from a laboratory? The World Health Organization’s latest report offers little new clarity and raises serious concerns about international cooperation and scientific transparency.

On 27 June 2025, the WHO Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO) released its second report examining how the virus emerged. Despite years of work and renewed international focus, the findings have been widely criticised for failing to break new ground. Much of the blame lies in what was not included. Critical data requested from China was never provided, leaving glaring holes in the investigation.

“The report adds almost nothing to what a few talented independent investigators found several years ago,” said Viscount Ridley, co-author of Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19.

“That it has taken five years and 23 people to produce this ‘all but useless’ addition to the literature on the origin of COVID-19 is frankly a disgrace.”

The search for COVID-19’s origin is not simply an academic exercise. Understanding how this virus entered the human population is crucial for preventing the next pandemic. Scientists agree that future coronavirus outbreaks are not only possible but also likely. Knowing whether SARS-CoV-2 came from a wildlife market or a laboratory accident informs how humanity prepares for the next spillover.

While the SAGO report acknowledges both the zoonotic spillover and lab-leak theories as plausible, it stresses the need for further evidence — evidence that remains frustratingly out of reach.

“If China had been transparent all along, we would have been able to pinpoint what happened,” said Dr Deborah Birx, who served as the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator from 2020 to 2021.

Most virologists continue to believe that the virus has a natural origin, a view reinforced in a new documentary titled Unmasking COVID-19’s True Origins, released by Real Stories on 15 July. “The vast majority of virologists understand the virus had a natural origin,” one expert says in the film. Still, without access to early samples and full records, both theories remain scientifically viable, and political tensions continue to cloud the inquiry.

This latest WHO report comes just weeks after a major development in global health policy. On 20 May 2025, the World Health Assembly adopted the long-anticipated WHO Pandemic Agreement, a legally binding treaty intended to strengthen preparedness for future outbreaks. The agreement aims to fix the deep weaknesses revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic: sluggish coordination, delayed data sharing, and unequal access to vaccines and treatments.

The treaty commits countries to share information on emerging pathogens faster, improve cooperation on disease surveillance, and distribute medical tools such as vaccines more equitably. It also respects national sovereignty, meaning that countries will not be forced to relinquish control of their public health decisions. Still, some provisions — particularly those concerning the sharing of pathogen samples and related benefits — remain under negotiation and are expected to be finalised in 2026.

The WHO’s first SAGO report, released on 9 June 2022, also found that both leading origin theories were possible and called for further data from Chinese authorities. The absence of transparency since then has only heightened frustration among scientists. The call for cooperation is not just about this virus but about preparing for what comes next.

Meanwhile, research vital to fighting COVID-19 and future respiratory diseases has quietly stalled. In 2024, Ohio State University was awarded USD 15 million to study new treatments for SARS-CoV-2 and long COVID. One promising clinical trial focused on a drug to treat hypoxemic respiratory failure, a leading cause of death among hospitalised patients. But halfway through, the National Institutes of Health abruptly terminated the funding.

The cancellation saved USD 500,000 but came after USD 1.5 million had already been spent. As a result, researchers were forced to abandon the trial entirely, delaying possible treatments that could have helped the nearly one million people hospitalised annually for respiratory failure caused by COVID, flu, and other infections.

“This is a disaster for all of us,” said a veteran scientist at Ohio State. “We’re all depressed and living on a knife-edge, because we know we could lose the rest of our grants any day. These people really hate us, yet all we’ve done is work hard to make people’s health better. A flu pandemic is coming for us; what’s happening in cattle is truly scary and all we have is oxygen and hope for people.”

Scientific leaders argue that the world must do the opposite of what is currently happening: invest more, not less, in pandemic-related science. Research that has languished or been underfunded must be revived and expanded. More international partnerships are needed, especially with researchers in hotspot regions such as China, to ensure the global community is better equipped to face the next threat.

As the WHO itself notes, “The work to understand the origins of SARS-CoV-2 remains unfinished.”

But without transparency, funding, and political will, it may remain that way for years to come. And if that happens, the world could be left just as vulnerable when the next pandemic emerges.