Untangling the Reality of Famine in Gaza

Eleven months into the war in Gaza, Gaza’s civilian population has experienced severe deprivation under siege. Humanitarian leaders have repeatedly warned of the risk of famine.

Refugees International has conducted research in Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and remotely in Gaza throughout 2024 to assess the risk of famine and interview Palestinian families impacted by the crisis firsthand, as well as aid officials involved in the response.

Examining the hand of a severely malnourished child in Gaza. - Refugees International

Our research found strong indications of famine-like conditions and negative coping mechanisms symptomatic of famine situations among Palestinian civilians. It also found that the ebbs and flows in hunger conditions are closely linked to Israeli government restrictions and concessions on aid access as well as the conduct of the Israeli military. Without a widespread and enduring course correction, the risk of famine-like conditions remains dangerously high.

Refugees International's latest report, "Untangling the Reality on Famine in Gaza," outlines the trajectory of Gaza’s hunger crisis over the course of the last 11 months, corroborated by interviews Refugees International conducted with affected individuals. The report also provides a refutation of Israel’s counter-narrative downplaying the severity of hunger conditions and shares clear steps that must be taken to address the crisis.

Executive Summary

The 11 months since Hamas’ brutal attack on Israel have been a perpetual humanitarian disaster for Palestinians in Gaza, with severe deprivation throughout the population and humanitarian leaders warning of persistent famine risk. As the crisis has worsened, it has also become increasingly politicized, with the government of Israel promoting a counter-narrative downplaying the severity of conditions, and emphatically rejecting famine warnings as overblown. The issue of famine risk, and the question of who is responsible, remains a driving force in U.S. and global policy toward Gaza. 

The humanitarian effects of Israeli government obstruction of aid have been a major factor in diplomatic decision-making around Gaza, influencing the UK’s decision to suspend arms transfers to Israel and becoming a central focus of a U.S. review of arms transfers under the National Security Memorandum-20 (NSM-20) process. The question of famine risk also continues to shape ongoing International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice (ICJ) processes. If the risk of famine were overblown, as the Israeli government claims, it would be of great relevance to these diplomatic and legal processes.

Contrary to the official Israeli pushback, research and analysis by Refugees International has corroborated evidence of a severe hunger crisis in Gaza and found consistent indications that famine-like conditions occurred in northern areas during the first half of 2024. Refugees International also found that the ebbs and flows in hunger conditions are closely linked to Israeli government restrictions and concessions on aid access, and to the conduct of the Israeli military. International pressure on the Israeli government in March and April, following warnings of imminent famine in parts of Gaza, prompted a series of Israeli concessions around aid and commercial access. 

These shifts enabled a brief period of stabilizing conditions in April that altered the rapidly worsening hunger trajectory seen in February and early March, and that likely deferred an otherwise imminent descent into widespread famine. However, this improvement was short-lived, and conditions have again been deteriorating badly since the Rafah offensive in May. Without a more widespread and enduring course-correction on aid access, civilian protection, and humanitarian security, there remains a grave risk of famine conditions spiraling once again.

Recommendations

To Warring Parties:

• Immediately agree to a mutual ceasefire and release all hostages and civilian detainees; cease all escalations and actions that deteriorate or undermine efforts to reduce the suffering of civilians and end the war.

• Adhere to international humanitarian law; refrain from misuse of, or attacks on, humanitarian operations and facilities; and cease all attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.

• Allow UN and humanitarian agencies safe, robust, and consistent access to populations-in-need in all parts of Gaza.

To the Government of Israel:

• Open additional border crossings for sustained humanitarian access, and restore essential services to prevent further famine risk.

• Cease forced evacuations, which degrade humanitarian response capacity and greatly worsen the vulnerability of Palestinian civilians.

• Ensure that IDF forces rigorously adhere to deconfliction protocols to ensure safe movement for humanitarian aid and personnel throughout Gaza.

• Lift all restrictions on essential aid items and UN agencies or mutually-agreed neutral parties to oversee inspections, following precedents from Syria and Yemen.

To the Biden Administration:

• Fully use U.S. government leverage, up to and including the suspension of arms transfers and invoking section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act, to halt forced evacuations and ensure continuous humanitarian aid access across Gaza.

• Secure a ceasefire and the release of all hostages and civilian detainees, halt forced evacuations, and restore aid access and civilian protection in Gaza.

About the authors:

Jeremy Konyndyk is the president of Refugees International. Follow him on X @JeremyKonyndyk.

Jesse Marks is the senior advocate for the Middle East at Refugees International. Follow him on X @JesCMarks.