Will UK’s Labour win snap election? Latest odds and polls

The polls are predicting a Labour victory. (Getty) (Leon Neal via Getty Images) - Yahoo News

Rishi Sunak has announced a snap general election - with the country set to go to the polls on Thursday, 4 July.

Speaking outside Downing Street to confirm the surprise move, the prime minister said: "Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future."

Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, but the prime minister is clearly hopeful that his announcement that interest rates have fallen to their lowest level in nearly three years (in what he described as a "major moment for the economy") will give him a boost.

Labour has been ahead of the Tories in the polls for many months, with the latest poll by Savanta reportedly putting Labour 20 points ahead on 44% and the Conservatives on 24%.

What the experts say

Pollster Professor John Curtice predicted that Labour has a "99% chance" of winning the next election.

Speaking to Politico, he said there is now a “99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”, saying: "It’s clearly a very small chance that the Tories are going to be in government after the autumn.”

Meanwhile, former Tory adviser Luke Tryl, who is UK director of the More in Common think-tank, put Labour's chance of winning at 95%.

He told HuffPost: "Who am I to disagree with the great John Curtice? I would maybe put it at 95% rather than 99% personally, but I still think it is very, very likely, simply because I don’t think we know."

What the polls say?

Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022.

According to the Guardian, which tracks latest polling averages, sourced from all major British polling companies, Labour is currently at 44.6%, with the Conservatives trailing behind at 22.9%, followed by Reform at 11.3%, the Liberal Democrats at 9.8% and the Green Party at 6.5%.

According to the latest Ipsos Political Monitor, conducted from 8-14 May, three in four people (74%) predict that Labour will be the biggest party after the next election. That is 13 points since last September and much higher than public expectations of a Labour victory ahead of the 2010, 2015 and 2019 elections.

Some 45% think there will be a Labour majority government, compared to three in ten (29%) saying a hung parliament with them as the largest party.

Only one in seven (14%) are predicting a Conservative win (-13 points since September), while around one in 20 predict a Conservative majority (6%), with a similar proportion saying a hung parliament with them as the largest party (8%).

What the odds say

According to the website Oddschecker, Labour is the favourite to win the next election - with average betting odds of 2/17 for Labour to pick up the most seats.

The site has Conservatives as 12/1 to win the most seats, while Reform UK is at 66/1. – Yahoo News