Climate Change Fuels Rapid Intensification of Storms

Hurricane Erin weakened to a Category 2 storm Monday evening after days of dramatic shifts in strength, making it one of the fastest-intensifying Atlantic hurricanes on record.

Erin became the first hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season on Friday, surging from Category 1 to Category 5 in just over 24 hours. The storm later weakened and regained Category 4 strength, ranking it among the five fastest storms to escalate from Category 1 to Category 5.

The National Hurricane Center reported Erin passing east of the Bahamas on Monday, with heavy rainfall forecast for Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, and parts of the Bahamas through Tuesday.

Experts point to Erin’s “rapid intensification” — a jump in sustained winds of at least 35 mph within 24 hours — as a clear warning sign. Erin’s winds rose about 75 mph in a single day.

Scientists link this phenomenon to climate change, driven by unusually warm sea surface temperatures and excess moisture in the atmosphere. Preliminary analysis by Climate Central found Erin’s extreme strengthening occurred over waters made up to 100 times more likely by human-driven climate change.

Rapid intensification is becoming more common. A 2023 study found Atlantic cyclones between 2001 and 2020 were nearly 30% more likely to rapidly intensify compared to 1971–1990. Recent hurricanes including Dorian (2019), Ian (2022), and Milton (2023) also displayed similar patterns.

Although Erin is not expected to make landfall, forecasters warn of dangerous swells, surf, and rip currents affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. east coast, and Atlantic Canada in the coming days.