India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar
The backdrop to this visit is the fraught relationship between India and Pakistan, which have a history of bitter rivalry marked by three wars and ongoing skirmishes since their partition in 1947. Relations took a hopeful turn in 2015 when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan, igniting optimism for improved ties. However, this hope was short-lived; relations deteriorated sharply in 2019 following Modi’s revocation of the limited autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir. This controversial move was met with widespread approval in India but prompted Pakistan to suspend bilateral trade and downgrade diplomatic relations.
Kashmir remains a flashpoint for both nations, with the region enduring a protracted and violent insurgency against Indian rule. It is claimed in full by both countries, adding to the complexities of their relationship.
“The primary focus of the visit is the SCO summit,” emphasized government spokesman Randhir Jaiswal during a recent press conference. He cautioned against interpreting the visit as a sign of thawing relations, stating that there “should not be any thought” about significant diplomatic breakthroughs stemming from this trip.
The SCO, founded by China and Russia, consists of ten member nations and has historically sought to bolster ties with Central Asian states while challenging Western influence. It represents around 40 percent of the world’s population and 30 percent of global GDP, yet its members exhibit diverse political systems and often face internal disagreements.
Last year, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari attended an SCO meeting in Goa, where tensions flared in a verbal exchange with Jaishankar. The two leaders did not engage in a one-on-one meeting during that encounter.
Experts suggest India’s participation in the summit is driven more by its commitment to the SCO than by a genuine desire to improve relations with Pakistan. Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, remarked, “India’s decision to attend the summit undoubtedly reflects its strategic interests in the SCO rather than any intent to advance dialogue with Pakistan.”