El Niño Tests Global Readiness for a Changing Climate

El Niño is a natural climate pattern linked to unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific, which can disrupt rainfall and temperatures around the world.

El Niño is strengthening in a world that is already hotter, raising the risk of drought, floods and crop losses across some of the world's most important food-producing regions.

But unlike many disasters, El Niño can be detected in advance. UN experts say the months ahead offer countries an opportunity not only to protect the next harvest and strengthen food security, but also to prepare for a more unpredictable climate in the longer term.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern originating in the tropical Pacific that can alter rainfall and temperatures across the world.

As it strengthens again, its effects are unfolding against a much warmer global climate.

“El Niño now is building on a much higher baseline,” Kaveh Zahedi, Assistant Director-General at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and its climate lead, said.

“It’s a hotter world that the El Niño is happening in, which means it’s going to be magnifying some of the impacts,” he added.

For farmers, that can mean the difference between a successful harvest and crop failure, sufficient pasture for livestock and severe shortages, or a manageable climate shock and a food-security crisis.

But unlike many disasters, El Niño “announces” itself. Scientists can track its development across the Pacific, giving governments valuable time to prepare—if they have the resources and willingness to act.

A Disaster You Can See Coming

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El Niño is strengthening rapidly, with its effects already being felt in climate-sensitive sectors.

WMO expects the current El Niño to become very strong, reaching its peak toward the end of the year. However, the organisation cautions that the projected peak is not the end of the event, as its impacts can continue beyond that point.

“We have the forecast. We have the science,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has said, highlighting the growing ability of governments to understand climate risks before they materialise.

While WMO monitors large-scale changes across the Pacific, FAO brings another important resource: more than four decades of data on how previous strong El Niño events affected agriculture.

By combining historical records with current conditions, seasonal forecasts and information on food insecurity, FAO can identify areas at particularly high risk. Its mapping can, in some cases, identify vulnerable locations at a resolution of roughly one square kilometre, helping governments determine where and when action is most urgently needed.

FAO estimates a high risk of agricultural drought in Southern Africa and the Sahel, Central America's Dry Corridor and parts of South and Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, heavier rainfall and flooding could pose greater threats, while unusually warm ocean waters could disrupt fisheries and coastal livelihoods.

The consequences are not theoretical.

During the strong 2023–2024 El Niño, Morocco's cereal yields fell by 43 percent amid extreme heat and drought. Southern Africa experienced its worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance and pushing more than eight million into food insecurity. Poor harvests also contributed to higher prices for some staple foods globally.

“We have a glimpse of what happened last time when we weren’t prepared,” Zahedi said.

Climate Adaptation on a ‘Shorter Clock’

Preparing for El Niño can involve practical measures such as drought-resistant seeds, improved water storage, healthier soils, livestock protection and early warnings that give farmers enough time to change planting dates or crops.

“There’s plenty we can do,” Zahedi said, adding that governments have a lead time but need to act quickly because the window for preparation is shrinking.

He said measures should be in place by February or March to help safeguard the next harvest.

The same investments that can help farmers cope with El Niño can also strengthen resilience to a hotter and less predictable climate. Better water management, early-warning systems, resilient crops and livestock, healthier soils and stronger ecosystems can serve both immediate and long-term needs.

In that sense, preparing for El Niño amounts to climate adaptation on a shorter timeline.

Funding Gap

Yet financing for agrifood systems remains limited.

An upcoming FAO analysis finds that climate-related development finance for agrifood systems fell by 10 percent in 2024 to $26.9 billion. Crops, livestock, forestry and fisheries received only about 5 percent of total climate-related development finance.

In Africa, such financing fell by 20 percent even as overall climate-related development finance to the continent increased.

“Not enough is going into the productive sectors and building that resilience,” Zahedi said, arguing that investment needs to increase to protect food security, particularly during an El Niño year.

Preparing Before the Next Crisis

El Niño is expected to add urgency to discussions at the UN Climate Summit at UN Headquarters, where adaptation and climate finance are among the key issues.

The arrival of El Niño cannot be prevented, but many of its likely impacts can be mapped in advance. In some of the areas facing the greatest risks, governments still have months to take preventive measures.

“Investing in adaptation in El Niño is a no-brainer,” Zahedi said. “Right now, we have a window of opportunity.”

For FAO, however, investment is not only about protecting agriculture from climate shocks. Agriculture itself can also form part of the solution.

Restoring degraded land, expanding agroforestry and making livestock and aquaculture more sustainable can strengthen resilience while supporting food security, biodiversity and efforts to reduce emissions.

“We’re not just positioning it as saying they are being impacted or they are the victims, but rather demonstrating that they have solutions,” Zahedi said.

“There is no better investment in climate, or in food security, probably in biodiversity as well, than agrifood system solutions.”